War in Ukraine | Drone strikes that stir up speculation

Russia accuses Ukraine of having increased drone attacks within its borders, after three offensives in two days earlier this week. The Ukrainian government has not confirmed any involvement. Update on the situation.

Ukraine has used drones against Russian positions in the past. What is special about the current situation?

Russian airbases – including two located some 500 km from the border – were reportedly hit on December 5 and 6 in the Ryazan and Saratov regions. This appears to confirm Ukraine’s use of longer-range drones — although it did not claim responsibility for the strikes. “First and foremost, it’s surely a psychological shock on the side of Russia,” said Dominique Arel, professor and holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. Because these targets were located far from the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian drones managed to avoid all air defense systems that are supposed to be invincible over such a long distance. »

Media have spoken of it as a new escalation of the conflict, citing the theoretical possibility for Ukrainian drones to reach Moscow. A reading of the situation refuted by Maria Popova, associate professor of political science at McGill University. “I don’t think Ukraine has that capability and there’s no indication they would want to,” she said, adding that the targets were military. “Self-defense cannot be an escalation,” she adds.

Why were these bases targeted?

Since October, Russia has been particularly targeting Ukraine’s electricity and water treatment infrastructure, causing major breakdowns and depriving people of heating and water. “In an attempt to thwart these attacks, Ukraine has tried to target the airfields from which the planes carrying out the attacks depart”, explains Mr.^me Popova.

Did the strikes cause damage?

Difficult to confirm. Russia reported three deaths and two aircraft damaged in one of the strikes. “Even if, at the end of the day, there are perhaps two planes which were damaged, if not destroyed – it is not the whole fleet – it is the message which is sent here which is very strong”, Judge M. Arel. The anti-aircraft system would not have intercepted the drones, which have an ability to fly very low, under the detectors, which explains part of their success, on both sides. “It is possible that they were taken by surprise”, advances M^me Popova.

Where do these drones come from?

It seems that the drones would have been adapted by the Ukrainians from old Soviet models. “According to the information we have, it seems that the Ukrainians would not have used Western technology, because the Americans in particular do not want to transfer this type of weapon — because when we talk about drones with missiles, it It’s the extension of a weapon, explains Mr. Arel. They don’t want to transfer military equipment that could be used to attack Russia [sur son territoire]. »

Could the conflict escalate further?

Russia struck several targets this week, including destroying residential buildings. At the moment, the heaviest fighting is in eastern Ukraine, around the town of Bakhmout, which Russian forces have been trying to take for months.

The conflict has been going on for nine months and nothing is ruled out: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said this week that he expects a sort of lull in Russia, to regain its strength. But he also expressed his concerns on Norwegian television that the war could escalate. “We talk a lot about climbing [ces jours-ci], but the decision to systematically attack the energy infrastructure was one,” notes Mr. Arel. Russia’s ability to mobilize large numbers of well-trained soldiers remains weak, he adds. The use of nuclear weapons, mentioned many times, remains very theoretical. “There is no one who is not worried by that, but if a nuclear weapon were used on the front, from a strictly military point of view, the gains would be very limited, underlines Mr. Arel. But the Western and American response would be absolutely devastating for Russia. »

The humanitarian crisis, for its part, remains glaring in many Ukrainian cities plunged into the cold and which have difficulty in accessing drinking water. “The situation is very serious,” laments Mr.^me Popova.

With Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press