Dramatic reversal in Russia: after months of tension, the internal struggles between the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner and the Russian army broke out in broad daylight on Friday, exposing the vulnerability of the Kremlin, according to a specialist. A rebellion that could weaken the Russian position in Ukraine.
Tanks on the streets of Moscow. An alleged clash between Russian soldiers and fighters from the paramilitary group Wagner – yet an ally of the Kremlin – in Russia. And a call from Yevgeny Prigojine to go “all the way” by being “ready to die” to overthrow the military command: the armed rebellion launched by the leader of Wagner against the Russian army on Friday marks a turning point in the war in Ukraine.
“It doesn’t come out of nowhere, but it’s shocking,” says Maria Popova, associate professor in the political science department at McGill University, specializing in post-Soviet politics.
These tensions among rival Russian factions were latent, but they were exposed on Friday when Yevgeny Prigojine, the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner, accused the Russian army of killing its fighters.
PHOTO YULIA MOROZOVA, REUTERS ARCHIVES
The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin
“They carried out missile strikes on our rear camps. A very large number of our fighters have been killed,” he said, accusing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering the attacks.
While this accusation could not be independently verified, it is plausible, argues Mr.me Popova. “The Russian military has little regard for human life, and Wagner’s fighters are often ex-convicts. The army would have no problem eliminating them. »
These accusations “do not correspond to reality and are a provocation”, however retorted the Russian Ministry of Defense in a press release.
“Ready to die”
Yevgeny Prigojine did not limit himself to denouncing the Russian chain of command: he took action by provoking an armed rebellion.
“We are all ready to die, all 25,000. And after that, there will be another 25,000. Because we die for the homeland, we die for the Russian people who must be liberated from those who bombard the population” , hammered Yevgeny Prigojine in an audio message on Telegram.
“We will destroy everything that gets in our way,” he threatened.
Early Saturday morning, the Wagner chief claimed to have arrived at Russian army headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key center for Russia’s assault on Ukraine, and taken control military sites, including an airfield.
“We are at HQ, it is 7:30 a.m.,” Evgueni Prigojine said in a video posted on Telegram. “The military sites in Rostov are under control, including the airfield,” he added, as men in uniform walk behind him.
Earlier, Wagner’s leader claimed to have left Ukraine and entered Rostov-on-Don with his men. He had also indicated on Telegram that he had been attacked by a Russian helicopter, which was shot down by his fighters.
In Rostov, the region’s governor called on the population to “stay at home”.
In Moscow, security measures have also been “reinforced” around sensitive places, according to a law enforcement official quoted by the TASS agency. Videos of military vehicles in the streets of the capital circulated on social networks, without being able to be authenticated. Several internet providers have blocked Google News in Russia, reported the New York Times.
“Because of the information [nous] reaching them, anti-terrorist activities are underway in Moscow with the aim of strengthening security measures,” the mayor of the city wrote on Telegram.
” Until the end ”
Mr. Prigojine says he is ready to go “all the way” to dismiss the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of Staff, Valeri Guerassimov. During the day on Friday, he called Russia’s victorious declarations on the war in Ukraine a “deep deception”, accusing the general staff of “hiding” Russian difficulties and losses on the ground.
“There is no control, there are no military successes,” he snapped.
“The war was necessary for a group of bastards to be promoted,” he also castigated, taking his criticism of the Russian elite to another level. He accused “the oligarchs” who “needed the war”, while Kyiv was according to him “ready for any agreement”.
Barely a month ago, Vladimir Putin publicly thanked the Wagner group for its support in the war in Ukraine. “Wagner is the creation of the Kremlin, recalls Mme Popova. The question is rather: will Putin sacrifice it? »
Early indications point in this direction, according to the Institute for the Study of War. On Friday, a “criminal investigation in connection with the attempt to organize an armed mutiny” was opened, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The FSB (security forces) for its part called on Wagner’s fighters to arrest their leader.
The Russian opponent and businessman in exile Mikhail Khodorkovsky encouraged the population to support Mr. Prigojine in his fight against the army of Vladimir Putin. “Yes, even the devil, he would have to be helped if he decided to go against this regime! “, he launched on Telegram.
A victory for Ukraine
In Ukraine, the armed forces simply dropped Twitter : ” We look ” (” We are watching “).
“In many ways, it’s a success for Ukraine, for being so strong and united in its fight to push back Russia,” remarks Maria Popova.
Factions of Russian forces have “turned on each other due to the lack of results on the ground”, she adds.
In full escalation of the conflict, difficult to predict the results, according to her. Among the many questions: how will Vladimir Putin get out of this crisis?
“What we know is that Russia is in a weak position, and that there is little chance that it will improve, believes the researcher. These internal struggles are serious and could lead to a kind of collapse. »
Bombings across Ukraine
As the rebellion hits Russia, bombings against several Ukrainian cities occurred on Friday.
Explosions sounded overnight in Kyiv and Kharkiv, authorities in both cities said, as all of Ukraine is on alert for impending Russian strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force reported missiles flying in the direction of the regions of Sumy (north), Poltava and Dnipro (center). She also called on residents of the southern regions of Mykolaiv and Kherson to stay in shelters.
In an exclusive interview with the British newspaper The Guardian on Friday, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of ground forces, maintained that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had not really begun. “It’s all to come,” he said.
With Agence France-Presse