China, which maintains close ties with Russia, is trying to play the balancing act in the face of the Ukrainian crisis by pleading for a negotiated solution while avoiding denouncing the “special military operation” ordered by Moscow.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
China’s Foreign Ministry gave yet another example of this approach on Friday by summarizing in a statement the outline of a morning telephone meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. .
The Chinese leader, the text indicates, stressed on this occasion that it was important “to take seriously and respect the reasonable security concerns of all countries” and to negotiate a new mechanism to ensure security in Europe.
He also specified that his country believed “for a long time” that it was necessary “to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries”.
On Wednesday, shortly before the launch of the offensive, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, had blamed the United States for the deterioration of the security situation in Ukraine, again avoiding direct criticism of the Russia.
“When the United States promoted five waves of NATO expansion eastward to Russia’s doorstep, and deployed sophisticated strategic offensive weapons despite assurances that had been given to Moscow, did they think about what could happen when you put a big country up against the wall? she asked.
Awkward position
Bill Hayton, China specialist attached to the English research center Chatham House, thinks that Beijing “would rather not have to answer” the questions raised by the military operation in progress in Ukraine.
Moscow’s tough move, Mr. Hayton says, does indeed put Xi Jinping in an awkward position. He does not want to alienate the Russian leader, but neither can support him publicly without reservation without violating the principle of territorial integrity that his country claims to ward off any “secessionist” movement.
Jude Blanchette and Bonny Lin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note in a recent analysis that the Chinese regime actually opposes other powers engaging in a form of territorial “revisionism”, but allows itself to do so, as shown by its “appetite for Taiwan” or its expansionist projects in the South China Sea.
This reservation explains in particular, they say, that Beijing never recognized the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014.
China also fears that by offering too overt support to Moscow in relation to the ongoing operation in Ukraine, it will alienate the member countries of the European Union and worsen its relations with the United States, recreating at the same time a “cold war” dynamic in which it would form a bloc with Russia.
The situation, the CSIS researchers point out, could materialize if Beijing offers in the coming months increased economic support to Russia to circumvent the sanctions stemming from the Ukrainian intervention.
It is “very unlikely”, due to the diplomatic difficulties arising for Beijing from the crisis, to imagine that the Chinese regime has “given its approval” to an invasion of Ukraine, note Mr. Blanchette and Mr.me Linen.
“Unlimited” partnership
The hypothesis had been put forward by some analysts after a meeting in Beijing in early February between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, just before the opening of the Olympic Games.
The two leaders then produced a long joint declaration in which they insisted on the “unlimited” nature of their partnership and their desire to oppose any “attempt by external forces aimed at undermining the stability and security” of their region.
The two countries expressed on this occasion their opposition to any attempt to expand NATO.
The secretary general of the Atlantic military alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, denounced their statement in mid-February, noting that “the two authoritarian powers are working[aient] together” to advance their interests.
“They don’t like our values, freedom and democracy. And that is why they seek to deprive sovereign, democratic nations of the right to choose their own future,” he said.