War in Ukraine | 2024, the year too many?

The war in Ukraine will enter its third year this February. But nothing indicates an end to hostilities in the short term. What can we expect in 2024 for this conflict which has already left 10,000 civilians dead, 8 million refugees and 500,000 soldiers killed or injured? What challenges await Ukraine, in a context of political and military uncertainty? What can we expect from Russia, which announced a new mobilization at the beginning of December? Four scenarios.

Blockage in the US Congress

The resolution of the conflict depends largely on Western – and particularly American – military and financial aid to Ukraine. The United States has so far injected more than 100 billion for the defense and operation of the country. But at the time of writing, Kyiv was still hanging on the promise of a new envelope of $60 billion, requested from Congress by the White House. However, the hard-line fringe of the Republican Party is opposed to the text, as long as the Democrats do not accept in exchange a toughening of American migration policy.

And it was not the visit to Washington by the Ukrainian president on December 12 that changed the situation. Pleading his case first before a Senate with a Democratic majority, which is favorable to him, and then in the House of Representatives held by the Republicans, where a certain opposition to new financial aid is being felt, Volodymyr Zelensky came up against to a divided Congress.

The statement made to journalists by Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, following his meeting with Mr. Zelensky, is not reassuring. “What the Biden administration seems to want is billions of additional dollars without adequate oversight, without any real strategy for victory,” Agence France-Presse reported.

This standoff, linked to an isolationist rise among conservatives, is playing out as the United States enters a crucial election year. And rightly worries the Ukrainian government, which is seeing its last credits dwindle.

“Is the speaker [président de la Chambre des représentants, républicain] will you compromise at some point? We will see, continues Dominique Arel. What is certain is that if we find ourselves in a year with the election of [Donald] Trump, the war in Ukraine is over, because Trump is not interested. »

If so, what plan B for Volodymyr Zelensky?

Disengagement of the international community

Since the start of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis on October 7, the war in Ukraine has seemed to fall off the Western radar screen. This shows the fragility of international support in this dragging conflict. According to Yann Breault, professor at the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean, Kyiv is right to be concerned. Because this progressive disinterest could lead to a more concrete disengagement.

Media and polls in fact confirm a certain decline in the dynamics of support for Ukraine, both in the United States and in Europe. According to a recent report from the Kiel Institute, Western aid would be down 90% over the period from August to October 2023 compared to the previous year. An envelope of 50 billion euros envisaged by the European Union was also blocked at the beginning of December by certain European countries, now more reluctant to contribute to the Ukrainian fund, such as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

Dominique Arel remains optimistic despite everything. “It is certain that it serves the interests of Ukrainians less to be less in the international media,” he said. But my intuition is that the shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine is such that support will continue in Europe. »

Same story with Maria Popova, expert on the region and professor of political science at McGill University. “NATO is perfectly aware that this war is a strategic issue and that it is highly dangerous for Europe. Because if Russia wins in Ukraine, it is clear that its ambitions are greater. Europe therefore cannot afford to look elsewhere. »

Inability to break through the front

The Ukrainian army’s summer counter-offensive did not yield the expected results. This inability to break through enemy lines was combined with repeated assaults by the Russian army on the town of Avdiïvka, where fierce fighting took place all autumn. Nothing to help: stocks of Western weapons and ammunition are drying up, the rate of production of defense industries being far from sufficient for the Ukrainian camp.

In short, the conflict is stalling, the winter promises to be long, and Ukraine is starting to become demoralized.

For the first time, some media even mentioned a possible victory for Vladimir Putin this fall, in the event of a prolongation of the conflict.

In a magazine interview The Economist, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armies, Valeriy Zaluzhny, admitted in October the failure of his counter-offensive and recognized that a long war would be catastrophic for Ukraine. “The greatest risk of a trench war of attrition is that it can last for years and exhaust the Ukrainian state,” said the man many now see as a rival to Volodymyr Zelensky, with the two men increasingly showing more openly their differences on how to fight the war.

The expected delivery of Western F-16 aircraft could shake things up. But only significant technological innovations could neutralize Russian military capabilities, said General Zalouzhny, citing electronic warfare capabilities, advanced mine-clearing equipment and the integration of important robotic solutions. According to him, however, there is no sign of an imminent breakthrough in these areas.

Russia, between power and feet of clay

Moscow’s resources seem inexhaustible. Vladimir Putin announced at the beginning of November a 68% increase in his military budget and a 15% increase in his human resources. Despite the unprecedented sanctions, Russia has otherwise held firm. Its economy has returned to growth, thanks to trade with Turkey, China and India.

However, Putin will not be without challenges in 2024. Maria Popova recalls that Russia is experiencing a serious demographic crisis (declining births, aging of the population, exodus of young people to avoid mobilization, deaths at the front), which results in a lack of labor and could ultimately lead to recruitment difficulties. “The war is also taking its toll on Russia. If this conflict drags on for another year, it is not guaranteed that it will be able to maintain the pace,” explains the expert.

Finally, it is difficult to know what is happening in the Kremlin. Putin’s regime shows no signs of weakening. But the Wagner group rebellion last June and the recent anti-Israel riots at the Dagestan airport, two poorly managed crises, suggest that the giant could have feet of clay.

“In my opinion, there is great fragility, due to the ultracentralization of the Russian system,” concludes Dominique Arel. The system is so sclerotic right up to the top that one wonders to what extent it can continue…”

With Agence France-Presse