Are we on the verge of an even stronger war?
Not yet, but the risks are certainly increasing, replies Middle East conflict specialist and retired professor Rachad Antonius. “It is not yet clear whether Israel wants all-out war against Iran, and vice versa. I think even decision-makers don’t really know yet. But the tension is sure to rise. We are currently in a very high risk zone. »
According to Rachad Antonius, the Iranian regime probably felt “compelled to show its allies, but also Israel, that it was able to retaliate” after the assassinations of the leaders of Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas, which occurred during of the last few weeks.
What does that change in the current conflict?
In the very short term, “it especially slows down the peace process” between Hamas and Israel, says the director of the Canadian Observatory on Humanitarian Crises and Action at the University of Quebec in Montreal, François Audet. “This puts even more sand in the fragile gears of the truce talks. »
Mr. Audet deplores that the efforts of American President Joe Biden, who had feared this possibility for several days, “were not enough to calm things down”.
On the humanitarian side, if Israeli airspace were to become even more fragile, this could “break supply chains and further isolate the population,” fears the expert.
What is the logical next step?
An Israeli response is acquired in the context, initially, affirms Henri Habib, expert on issues related to the Middle East at Concordia University. “It can already be very dangerous. Afterwards, yes, it could cause a general war. And that could lead us to a world war, especially if America and Iran start bombing each other. But we’re not there yet. »
According to Mr. Habib, the current tensions between Hamas, Lebanon, Iran and Israel can be explained by “the lack of a leader” on the international scene. “The people, on both sides, are fed up. But no one is standing up to put an end to all this. »
When did Iran-Israel tensions begin?
The two regimes have been in opposition for a while. Tehran has been waging a “proxy” war with Israel for nearly 50 years. Without direct confrontation, in other words.
However, all this changed on the night of April 13 to 14, when Iran directly attacked Israel for the very first time in its history, by firing some 350 explosive drones and missiles.
That night, the Iranian regime – which until then had relied on its allies from the “axis of resistance” (Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria) – “succeeded in changing the rules of the game”, observed in the spring Raz Zimmt, researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
What will be the impact on Lebanon?
For Rachad Antonius, it is obvious that Israel “remains ready to go very far in the confrontation” with Lebanon, where the Netanyahu regime has already carried out several offensives targeting members of Hezbollah in recent days.
“They want to completely empty southern Lebanon, they are determined. For me, that doesn’t change any of that,” says Rachad Antonius.
For his part, François Audet is of the opinion that Iranian involvement could, in the long term, have an impact.
“Tehran has until now acted as an intermediary with Hezbollah, but by making a direct response, they are taking a stand, a political commitment in the current conflict. On a symbolic level, it is very important,” he says.
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- 500 million
- Approximate number of people residing in the Middle East and North Africa region, which includes Iran, Lebanon and Israel, among others, as of 2023. The figure has been on a strong upward trend for several decades .
Source: World Bank