“Waffle House Index”, “Japanese Haircut Indicator” “Popcorn Index”… Five improbable indices to measure climate or economic crises

What does a sugar waffle have to do with the intensity of a hurricane? This is the “Waffle House Index”, brought back to the fore after Hurricane Milton hit Florida. Other clues, also seemingly crazy, exist.

Certain behaviors of populations can inform observers about the extent of environmental or economic crises. In the United States and Japan, indicators based on these observations have gradually been put in place. They rely on the consumption of popcorn, for example, purchases of men’s underwear or even visits to hair salons.

The Waffle House Index

THE Waffle House Index is an indicator invented by a boss of FEMA, the agency that manages disasters and emergency situations in the United States. On Sunday, May 22, 2011, a tornado devastated the small town of Joplin, Missouri, and killed 158 people. However, the two Waffle Houses in the area, open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, remain open. A sign that the consequences of the crisis, although dramatic, have proven to be limited on an economic level, explains Craig Fugate, the creator of the index.

In other words, if these waffle restaurants are closed, it is because the situation is out of control, because local activity is at a standstill.. And if their card is reduced, it is because the economy is struggling to restart. It is less a question of measuring the intensity of a weather phenomenon than of evaluating the consequences and the capacity of a community to recover from it.

The Lipstick Index

In another register, we must Lipstick Index to an American, Leonard Lauder, the son (and heir) of Estée Lauder, who founded the cosmetics company of the same name in the 1920s in New York. What this “lipstick index”, developed (it’s a big word, however) during the 2001 crisis in the United States, tells us is that when everything goes wrong, particularly the economy, we have desire to heal and comfort oneself. Contrary to what one might think, observed Leonard Lauder in the months following the attacks of September 11, 2001, makeup sales increased.

A phenomenon that could have been verified in the more distant past – during the Great Depression in particular – or in more recent times, during the period of overinflation that we have just gone through for example. But be careful: these are rather inexpensive cosmetics we are talking about, affordable luxury, not overpriced perfumes.

The “Popcorn Index”

THE Popcorn Index also falls into dark times. What does he tell us? In times of scarcity, we hunt down unnecessary or superfluous expenses, particularly in leisure activities. However, observation of the facts can show us the opposite. In times of economic crisis, we tend to take refuge in fiction to escape the sad reality for a moment. This is evidenced by the box office explosion in 2009 across the Atlantic, while the financial crisis deepened the purchasing power of Americans. The cinemas were full – and perhaps, with them, the buckets of popcorn (hence the name of the clue). A similar trend can be found in France in cinema attendance. But in the age of streaming platforms, this rather unscientific index could quickly sink into oblivion.

The “Men’s Underwear Index”

Men’s underwear also has something to tell us. But it is not to a textile professional that we owe it Men’s Underwear Index. It was the former head of the American Federal Reserve – the central bank of the United States – who invented it. Alan Greenspan is a star in his genre. He “piloted” the American economy from 1987 to 2006, managing dramatic crashes and incredible rebounds, by scientifically manipulating interest rates. Suffice to say that we are not talking about a marketing genius or a fashion professional.

However, it was this doctor in economics who observed that any decline in the market for briefs and boxer shorts – clothing that is rarely considered luxury and whose sales are generally stable – forms a leading indicator of a coming crisis.

The Japanese Haircut Indicator

Journalists from the economic daily Nikkei explained in 2008, based on a study by Kao Corp, the second largest cosmetics company in Japan, that in times of crisis women, who have less money to spend on hair products or hair styling sessions, have tendency to favor short hair. A gendered thesis, which remains to be verified in our latitudes, which gave birth to Japanese Haircut Indicatorthe index of Japanese haircuts.

For twenty years, Kao Corp regularly interviewed cohorts of 1,000 women in the streets of Tokyo and Osaka and observed their hair developments. Until the 1990s, 60% of women in their 20s had long hair. A cut which will become marginal with the crisis of 1991 and until 2002, when, with the economic recovery, more prolific hairstyles – sometimes tied in a bun, nevertheless – will reappear.