Volodymyr Zelensky faces the specter of national disunity after two years of war and controversial choices

The dismissal of the very popular General Valery Zaluzhny and a law on mobilization have provoked numerous reactions within Ukrainian society and opposition parties.

From a united front to internal divisions. As Ukraine soon enters its third year of war, Volodymyr Zelensky must face a wave of criticism in his country from public opinion and the main opposition parties. The Ukrainian president, who begins Friday February 16, a new visit to France, can no longer fully count on the national union which was formed in the first hours of the Russian invasion, and which is crumbling over time. And to the political difficulties is added a military situation judged “worrying” by the new commander of the armies.

The very popular General Valeri Zalouzhny was in fact replaced at the head of the Ukrainian forces by Oleksandr Syrsky on February 8. A dismissal which would weaken the nation, according to former President Petro Poroshenko. “Because what does this country need to overcome its difficulties? Unity”explains the Ukrainian oligarch in an interview with the Belgian daily The Echo .

The very political dismissal of a popular general

Behind the firm handshake, the outward smiles and the complicity highlighted in the photo posted by Volodymyr Zelensky, the departure of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces made waves within Ukrainian society. The relationship between the two men had gradually deteriorated in recent months, particularly after the failure of the summer counter-offensive.

The outspokenness of the soldier in office since 2021 ended up annoying the presidential administration. In November 2023, he told the British weekly The Economist that the war was sinking, according to him, into “deadlock”and considered the objective set by Volodymyr Zelensky to quickly liberate the territories occupied by the Russians to be unrealistic. “This is undoubtedly the real reason for the general’s dismissal”underlines to franceinfo MP Oleksiy Hontcharenko, member of European Solidarity, the party of ex-president Petro Poroshenko. “This was a comment far removed from what the president was saying publicly about the conduct of the war.”

Added to this was a more personal rivalry. The “iron general’s” trust rating has reached new heights since the start of the war: 88%, according to a poll published by the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv in December. While that of the head of state collapses, going from 84% to 62% in one year. For MP Mykola Kniazhytskyi, also a member of European Solidarity, the departure of General Zalouzhny allowed the president to get rid of a future political rival. “The problem is not that Volodymyr Zelensky fired him (that is his right), but it is that he did not explain the reasons. (…) This dismissal seems to be the result of ‘a political jealousy’comments the opposition MP on Facebook.

A law on mobilization which risks demoralizing the troops

This change of military leader comes as the Ukrainian army faces a significant shortage of men. kyiv is struggling to find new volunteers to replenish the ranks of its units decimated by the fighting. To remedy this problem, the government tabled a controversial bill modifying the conscription rules, notably reducing the minimum age of conscripts from 27 to 25 years. A text which provoked the anger of the oppositions and electric debates in Parliament.

The main sticking point between the executive and parliamentarians concerns the period after which a soldier can be demobilized. With this text, the government proposes that a recruit who has served 36 months without interruption in the army can return to civilian life. However, as the Reuters news agency specifies, this demobilization will not be automatic and will have to be activated by the military command.

Throughout the debates on the bill in the Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament, the opposition demanded clarity: “The text presented by the government remains evasive and mentions demobilization planned after 36 months, (…) this is a purely declarative period”, critic Oleksiy Hontcharenko. In his eyes, the absence of a principle of automaticity would risk “to create a significant demoralizing effect” among recruits and soldiers already engaged. If the bill passes second reading and is signed into law, it would extend the service of soldiers who have been fighting since the Russian invasion began by one year.

The wear and tear of war and suspended elections

The resurgence of divisions within the political class is not surprising. “It is certain that we argue more, that we debate more than at the beginning of the invasionnotes Oleksiy Hontcharenko. This is how democracy should work. There must be debates and opposing points of view.”

For Cyrille Bret, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe, this sequence marks a new stage in Ukrainian political life. “It is normal that such a long-term conflict gives rise to political dissension and debate. In France, during the First World War, many governments were overthrown by the National Assembly.recalls the researcher associated with the Jacques-Delors Institute. “Especially since the elections did not take place.”

Martial law, in force for almost two years, has put a damper on the democratic game. The president successively suspended the organization of the legislative and presidential elections, respectively scheduled for October 2023 and March 2024.Ukrainian politicians are united, but obviously, over time, differences in approach become evident“, analyzes Cyrille Bret.

And within Ukrainian society, this bogging down war is causing a certain weariness. To the point that a growing number of inhabitants no longer defend the continuation of the fighting at all costs against the invader. According to an opinion study carried out by the American think tank National Democratic Institute in November, 42% are in favor of opening diplomatic discussions with Russia to end the war, i.e. 13 points more than in January 2023.