“Vladimir Putin is desperate”, estimated Friday September 23 on franceinfo Jean-Maurice Ripert, former ambassador of France, in particular in Russia from 2013 to 2017, while Moscow launched the partial mobilization of its reservists and that referendums are organized in the separatist regions. The head of the Kremlin “try to consolidate what he has acquired, that is to say not much”, says Jean-Maurice Ripert. According to him, the Russian President “lost everything” since the beginning of the invasion and “will not go further, for now, at least not this winter”.
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franceinfo: Is this acceleration of the tempo on the Russian side a sign of panic on the part of the Kremlin or a show of force by Vladimir Putin?
Jean-Maurice Ripert: Paradoxically, neither. Vladimir Putin is desperate. Faced with the turn of events, he tries to consolidate what he has acquired, that is to say not much. One of the few things he has acquired is a few territories in Ukraine. And yet, it is not even sure to keep them since, again this morning, in the middle of the referendum, the Ukrainian forces managed to regain a little ground. Don’t forget that winter is coming. So what the army was not able to do during the summer, it will be even less able to do with the coming Ukrainian winter. I think there is a desire to consolidate the achievements on the ground. Hence this partial mobilization, which will probably be deployed along the current front line.
Should Russia try very quickly to plant flags in the territories it wants?
Look what happened from the beginning: Vladimir Putin lost everything, he didn’t take kyiv, he didn’t bring down Volodymyr Zelensky, he united Europe, he triggered sanctions. Russia has become completely isolated on the international scene, NATO has expanded. Its only gains are a few counties and territories around Donetsk and Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. So he absolutely needs this to say that he has gained something vis-à-vis the Russian people, for those who still listen to him and vis-à-vis, above all, his extreme nationalist right in whose hands he is obviously more and more locked up.
Can Vladimir Putin accept defeat or is it a headlong rush because Russia cannot lose face or the war no matter what?
I think it’s worse than that. It is the installation in a status quo of war. He imagines that once after having annexed these territories by these bogus referendums, he will propose a negotiation, which, obviously, is even more difficult today than yesterday. The more territories occupied and attached to Russia, the more difficult it is. So he cuts himself off from a possibility of negotiation. He will consolidate his military lines and he will try to hold out through the winter to try to invent something else. He accepts the fact that he won’t go any further, for now. In any case, not this winter.