visualize the erosion of the front by the Russian army

Little by little, the Russian army is advancing into eastern Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced, in a publication on Telegram, Monday April 22, the capture of Novomykhaïlivka. This village near Vougledar, a mining town in the Donbass region, is the latest conquest claimed by Moscow. It is added to a list of newly occupied towns, cities and villages.

After the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, “we have witnessed an alternation in the initiative, a change in favor of Moscow”, analyzes Thibault Fouillet, scientific director at the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies (IESD). Since October 2023, Russian forces have been on the offensive in several areas of the east and south of the country. “The great Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023, which was supposed to lead to a breakthrough, to a rupture of the front, exhausted the Kiev army (…) while the Russians saved their forces”continues the researcher.

A “slow and gradual progression”

In addition to the imbalance in terms of men, ammunition and equipment between the two belligerents, Russian firepower, superior to that of Ukraine, has allowed modest but continuous advances. “In modern warfare, it is almost impossible to stop this slow and gradual progression if one of the two belligerents has more firepower than its opponent”observes Frederik Mertens, analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS), in the Netherlands.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American analysis center which follows the evolution of the front line day after day, provides an estimate of these territorial gains. On his site, on March 28, he estimated at 505 km2 the surface area conquered by Russian forces since “the launch of offensive operations in October 2023“. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu provided another estimate on April 2 on Telegram. The Russian army has, according to him, seized 403 km2 of Ukrainian territory since the beginning alone. of the year.

Thibault Fouillet draws a parallel between this progression and the offensives of the First World War: “As Marshal Joffre said, it’s snacking.” According to the analyst, this strategy adopted by the Russian general staff aims to “gain tactical and operational advantages” in order to exhaust the Ukrainians and “get a break up”.

The stronghold of Avdïivka, Moscow’s first major gain

Described as a fortress town, the industrial city of Avdïivka has been a stronghold of the Ukrainian army since the start of the Donbass war in 2014. The Russians launched a surprise assault there on October 10. To break down the opposing defenses, Moscow called on its bombers. The Russian Air Force performed at Avdïivka “an important and decisive role, in particular because the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense is less effective, adds Frederik Mertens. For the first time since 2022, the Russians are able to use their air force effectively (…) and they are losing relatively few planes.”

Russian fighter bombers dropped gliding bombs on the city, inflicting significant damage on the fortifications erected by the Ukrainians. These defensive infrastructures “can withstand a rain of 155 mm caliber shells, but not gliding bombs”, underlines Frederik Mertens. These munitions dating from the Soviet era have been improved with a guidance system, allowing pilots to fire at a good distance from the ground, specifies the American weekly Newsweek. According to the spokesperson for a Ukrainian army brigade, quoted by ISW, the Russian air force used nearly 73 KAB-type glide bombs on February 16 alone, a day before the Ukrainians withdrew from the city.

The capture of the city on February 17, however, proved very costly in human lives for the Russian army. A few days before his suicide, Russian military blogger Andrei Morozov, known under the pseudonym “Murz”, mentioned on his Telegram channel on February 19 the figure of 16,000 Russian soldiers killed, wounded or missing.

Tchassiv Iar, new epicenter of the fighting

One battle won, another begins. After the capture of Avdïivka, the Russian high command’s gaze focused on Chassiv Yar, another defensive lock located less than 30 kilometers from Kramatorsk, the main city of Donbass still under Ukrainian control. Its conquest would allow Moscow to penetrate the eastern region. “The overall operational goal is to conquer large settlements and logistical nodes in depth, but the Russian army must first conquer the localities on the waycomments Thibault Fouillet. The challenge is to nibble at the front, while retaining enough operational capabilities to carry out offensives.”

But the conquest of this industrial city promises to be difficult. Located at an altitude of 200 meters, the city is crossed by a canal, two geographical features which favor defense and slow down Russian progression. On April 4, the Telegram channel DeepState, close to the Ukrainian army, reported a first clash with the Russian army on the outskirts of the city. Russians “carried out a massive combined assault, which was stopped by the defense forces in a fierce battle.” Despite the enemy’s deluge of fire, the Ukrainian army held out. An officer, quoted by the ISW, reported on April 21 that his fighters continued to ensure the defense of the city, despite “slow Russian advances north of Ivanivske towards Chassiv Yar”. The Ukrainian units are, however, unable to retake the ground because of the “constant air attacks and frontal assaults” Russian units.

Robotyne, a symbolic and political conquest for Moscow

On the southern front, the village of Robotyne is a symbolic place for Ukrainians. Liberated at the end of August 2023 after several months of occupation, this town in the Kherson region is one of the rare conquests achieved by Ukrainian troops as part of their counter-offensive.

From this location, kyiv believed it could push further south, towards Melitopol, to reach the sea and cut the Russian army in two. But today, surrounded by the Russians, the town is under enemy fire and difficult to defend. According to Thibault Fouillet, the Russian army seeks to achieve a double objective: “Reduce the size of the salient, but also meet a political goal.” Clear, “the conquest of Robotyne would demonstrate the lack of results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive”. In recent weeks, the Russian army has carried out several attacks to retake positions, including launching small assault groups. The attacks were repelled, the Ukrainian command said on Telegram on April 3.

Do these territorial gains constitute a turning point in the war? For Frederik Mertens, the tactical and strategic importance of these advances should not be overestimated. “Unknown villages, some smaller than a park, become prestige targets and symbolic objectives,” he judges, ensuring that “control of these territories is not vital for kyiv.” In these costly battles in terms of men and equipment, the goal of the Ukrainians is not, according to the expert, to adopt a die-hard defensive attitude. “What is important is the army’s ability to hold a line of defense and maintain cohesion.”