(Quebec) Not one. Not two. Not three. But four times, the traditional alternating meeting between the French and Quebec prime ministers has been postponed.
Scheduled for 2020, it was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, then the French elections of 2022 and finally the crisis caused by the pension reform in France last year.
The visit of the French Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, this week will therefore take the form of a reunion between “cousins”, “brothers” or “friends”. This will be according to the formula that the main interested party will use and which will be subject to analysis as always. The youngest prime minister of the Ve République (35 years old) will deliver a speech to the National Assembly on Thursday afternoon.
President Emmanuel Macron appointed him in January. It was thanks to a reshuffle, an attempt to relaunch his second five-year term. A source of inspiration for François Legault, whose popularity rating is also declining in this second term? In any case, the ministerial reshuffle, which was being prepared in June, would be postponed until August, it is said internally. This is also what ministerial offices decode, attentive to the slightest warning signs.
Like his predecessors, Gabriel Attal will undergo a test to verify the status of France’s diplomatic policy of “non-interference, non-indifference” towards Quebec.
Especially in the context where the Parti Québécois is leading in voting intentions and promising a referendum on sovereignty if it is brought to power in 2026.
Of course, Gabriel Attal is not president, but he is considered a potential successor to Emmanuel Macron in 2027.
The neither-nor
President Nicolas Sarkozy caused a stir by pleading for Canadian unity in a speech at the Salon Bleu in 2008, then by reserving a first-class funeral at the “ni-ni” in 2009 in Paris. Who remembers that Jean Charest received the Legion of Honor that day at the Élysée?
France returned to “non-interference, non-indifference” in 2012 under François Hollande, when Pauline Marois was in power in Quebec. He is the last foreign dignitary to have given a speech before the National Assembly of Quebec. It was in 2014, under the Liberals.
Four years later, Philippe Couillard announced that Emmanuel Macron would give a speech at the Salon Bleu the day before the G7 Summit in La Malbaie, but the president canceled the event at the last minute. Too busy schedule, they said. His gesture was interpreted by some as indifference on his part, a lack of interest in Franco-Quebec diplomacy.
The relationship between France and Quebec is “strategic and at the same time emotional”, argued Emmanuel Macron.
We do not expect a turnaround with Gabriel Attal’s speech. But there is no doubt that he will take care to warm up the relationship. He will want to make a good impression for his first official visit outside the European Union since his appointment. The Sherpas from Legault and Attal are working hard to ensure the operation is a success.
The “neither-nor” was adopted by President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing when René Lévesque was in power in Quebec in 1977. And it was in that year that the alternating meetings of the first French and Quebec ministers.
The last meeting dates back to 2018, when Philippe Couillard went to Paris. This will therefore be the very first alternating meeting in which François Legault has participated since he came to power.
But this is not his first diplomatic activity with France.
Double or even triple exchanges
During a visit to Paris in 2019, François Legault showed his colors: “I hope that our special relationship with France takes on a much more economic content,” he declared in a speech after a meeting with Emmanuel Macron. He said he wanted to double or even triple trade with France.
Quebec exports to France reached 2 billion in 2023, compared to 1.7 billion in 2018; imports from France increased from 3.2 billion to 3.8 billion during the same period.
MM. Macron and Legault announced in a joint declaration their intention to give “new impetus” to “bilateral economic relations”.
“In an international context of trade tensions and increased protectionism, the entry into force of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union (CETA) will help support the acceleration of trade,” they wrote. they.
Uncertain fate
However, this free trade treaty, the application of which is provisional for the moment, has an uncertain future. The French Senate has just rejected its ratification. The agricultural crisis in France has weighed in the balance – even if milk, cheese and wine have benefited from the opening of the Canadian market, while the export of Canadian beef is below the fixed quota.
Result: the French National Assembly will have to vote again on this agreement. She narrowly ratified it in 2019, when Emmanuel Macron held an absolute majority. He has been in the minority since 2022.
Nine other countries out of the twenty-seven of the European Union have not yet completed all the stages which must lead to the final adoption of the treaty.
Neither François Legault nor Justin Trudeau directly addressed the agreement in the separate press releases they issued to announce Gabriel Attal’s visit. But it will surely be discussed during the meetings. Mr. Legault recalled that France is Quebec’s first economic partner in Europe, while Justin Trudeau has made “increasing trade” a priority. The French Prime Minister will be in Ottawa Wednesday evening and Thursday morning; he will then go to Quebec.
This Canada-EU free trade agreement occupied an important place in Quebec’s diplomatic activities. Jean Charest managed to relaunch discussions following an offensive launched in 2006-2007.
Language file
We can expect that language will be on the menu of the Attal-Legault meeting. A committee of experts recommended to the government at the start of the year to join forces with France to increase the presence and discoverability of French-speaking content on digital platforms.
Friday, Gabriel Attal, former Minister of Education, will visit a new primary school in Quebec and then the International Book Fair, before going to Montreal for an economic meeting.
This is not his first mission in Quebec. In 2019, Mr. Attal, then Secretary of State to the Minister of National Education and Youth, visited a branch of the Société québécoise du cannabis and learned about the recent legalization of jar in the country, as reported The Obs. Back in France, he said he was in reflection and open to a debate on the subject. Recreational cannabis is illegal in France; it is now legal in Germany since 1er april.
There is no shortage of topics, but there is perhaps a vein here for our cousins-brothers-friends French journalists…