If Hungary wanted to join the European Union today, it is likely that its application would be rejected, due to its failures to respect the rule of law. For its presidency of the EU, Hungary nevertheless promises to be “impartial”.
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From Monday July 1, Viktor Orban’s Hungary will take the helm of the European Union. More precisely the rotating presidency of the Council of the Union for six months. However, Budapest’s Euroscepticism is not likely to reassure its partners. Viktor Orban is a bit like the student at the back of the class who does as he pleases, tells the teacher to mind his own business and doesn’t care about the warnings.
The Hungarian head of government does not have the most constructive behavior of the 27. From the independence of justice to aid to Ukraine, including immigration or the rights of LGBT communities, the list is long issues on which Hungary has distanced itself from European values, which has also earned it unprecedented sanctions. Nineteen billion euros of funds owed to him are still blocked due to his breaches of the rule of law. If the country were a candidate for the European Union today, it is likely that the door would be slammed in its face.
Viktor Orban also regularly attempts to block the decisions of the 27. He uses his right of veto or obstructs arbitrations for months sometimes. His pro-Kremlin positioning doesn’t help matters. At the end of May, the Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs was annoyed to see that“around 40% of the decisions of the 27 on Ukraine were blocked” because of the brakes of the ultraconservative leader. That said, things have changed a little, Hungary finally accepted, on Tuesday, the opening of accession negotiations with kyiv. A “historic moment” which will redraw the geopolitical map of the continent, but it has managed not to supply weapons and still paralyzes European military aid. The envelope of more than six and a half billion euros remains in a drawer for the moment.
For its presidency of the European Union, Hungary promises to play the game and show itself “impartial”. Its slogan “Make Europe Great Again” is a perfect copy of former US President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), not really in the scent of holiness in Brussels. This is not trivial, but its power of nuisance will a priori be minimal, because these next six months the 27 will be taken up by the distribution of posts and the appointment of the new Commission. Legislative activity will be relatively calm. Viktor Orban, like the Italian Giorgia Meloni, however, is impatiently awaiting the result of the legislative elections in France. He is hoping for an additional ally in his major project of uniting the extreme rights intended to profoundly transform the European Union by giving power back to the nations.