Why Russia is interested in Ukraine
Anna Colin Lebedev : There are plenty of reasons for that. The first is that Russia and Ukraine were part of the same country, the Soviet Union, 30 years ago. And so, Russia, she has the feeling that all the countries that were part of this same country with her today have to have a special relationship with Russia. On the other hand, Ukraine is a transit route for the hydrocarbons that Russia sells in the European Union. Finally, symbolically, Ukraine is important for Russia. Some Russian is spoken there and Russia considers that the cradle of its own civilization is in Kiev. So losing the cradle of your own civilization still hurts.
Does Russia have allies?
Anna Colin Lebedev : She has allies, but I would say that is not the central element in this story. On the one hand, there is Belarus, which also borders Ukraine, which is very close to Russia at the moment, and the Russian armed forces are stationed in Belarus and could attack from Belarus. There are other states, but those states are a little far away. We have, for example, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, which is an allied state of Russia and could support it militarily. China is less obvious. Until now, there are partnerships between Russia and China, but there is absolutely no military alliance, so to this day, there is no reason for China to intervene in this armed conflict. which is still very, very far from its borders.
Could all of Europe be involved?
Anna Colin Lebedev : Europeans have absolutely no desire to fight, to engage in a war, and then Ukraine, if it were attacked by Russia, well it is not a member state of the European Union. It is a friendly state, partner, etc., but there is no legal obligation for any state in Europe to defend Ukraine. However, around Ukraine, well, there are countries which are members of the European Union and there, all the same, there is a sort of obligation of solidarity with these countries, and in particular the Baltic countries, the Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia and which border Belarus. Well, they are very afraid of being attacked by Russia. So, if ever Russia attacked them, there, of course, the situation would be a little different.
Is there a risk of world war?
Anna Colin Lebedev : A world war never starts as a world war. There is always a trigger in a country through a crisis… there, in this case, between Russia and Ukraine, today, we have quite a few other countries and other players who are present in this crisis. We have the United States, we have NATO, we have the European Union, we have different countries of the European Union, so indeed, if the conflict escalates, it could affect a large number of States.
Is there a nuclear risk?
Anna Colin Lebedev : Russia has nuclear weapons. Ukraine had it 30 years ago, but unilaterally and voluntarily decided to abandon its nuclear arsenal. So, today, what we know about the armed forces and weapons present on the Ukrainian border is that a priori, there is no nuclear missile, but this threat of nuclear attack is something that Russia regularly brandishes, saying: be careful, if there is a spiral, it is not impossible that it will turn into a nuclear war, and in a nuclear war, as you know, it there is no winner.
How did it start?
Anna Colin Lebedev : I would say that if there are things to understand, it is that Russia and Ukraine have been at war since 2014, since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which was part of Ukrainian territory, and its support… its armed intervention, in the republics of eastern Ukraine which wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. And so in fact, since then, we have armed forces facing each other, today we have troops on the border between Russia and Ukraine, but the troops have been there for a very long time. Today, there are just more, but it is a war that has never ended.