The “openness” and “major gains” that the Prime Minister of Quebec, François Legault, was delighted to have potentially extracted from his federal counterpart, Justin Trudeau, will have been, at most, of variable geometry. The federal Prime Minister has thrown weight where he wanted. And for the rest, Mr. Legault was forced to be satisfied with a facade of receptiveness in immigration.
No one really expected Justin Trudeau’s government to cede full powers in this area to Quebec. Not even François Legault, probably. The Quebec Prime Minister made a mistake by letting himself be carried away once again, stung by his PQ rival Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, to announce loud and clear that he would make the formal request during his meeting with the leader of the Canadian government. Unsurprisingly, the latter immediately refused.
But their talks nevertheless allowed some progress – although limited – for the CAQ government. Namely, that the federal government in turn consider requiring mastery of French among temporary workers, as the Coalition Avenir Québec will henceforth do for the reception of economic immigrants, which is under its jurisdiction. Quebec estimates that more than a quarter of temporary immigrants currently on Quebec soil (143,000 out of a total of 528,000) were welcomed through the federal international mobility program.
As for the request for reimbursement of a billion dollars for the reception of asylum seekers, Quebec no longer faces a categorical rejection. High-level discussions will ultimately be held between the prime ministers’ teams and ministries. An important change of course on the part of Ottawa, which nevertheless goes without saying if Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals really concede that Quebec has done “more than its share”.
The change in tone is also of a general nature and just as notable: the significant growth in temporary immigration in recent years is “an issue that we must take care of”, now admits Justin Trudeau, once a supporter of excessive immigration and suddenly became sensitive to the limits of Quebec’s reception capacity.
And in terms of health, his government will finally agree to an asymmetrical bilateral agreement for Quebec. François Legault can boast of having been able to resist the conditions of Ottawa in the last year and of being thus exempt from the results requirements imposed on the Canadian provinces. However, he also accepted the transfer of 900 million dollars, which he had previously described as clearly insufficient.
The victory is mixed (especially since the thorny issue of compensation for dental insurance and drug insurance remains unsolved). Just as the slim victories in immigration risk being, since it is a safe bet that at the end of these discussions, the compensation offer from the Trudeau government will be well below the billion dollars requested.
Moreover, the “openness” that Mr. Legault chose to detect was more akin to simple polite expressions on the part of Mr. Trudeau. Although the latter now agrees on the need to tighten temporary immigration in Quebec, as well as in Canada, he did not support the means of achieving this publicly mentioned by the Quebec Prime Minister (revision of the granting of visas, reduction in the number of temporary residence permits upon renewal, right of pre-approval of applications in this regard by Quebec). The admission of an imperative for corrective measures is not accompanied by a blank check for CAQ solutions.
Plummeting in the polls everywhere except in Quebec – where he is holding on to the Conservative Party in seat projections – Justin Trudeau had no other choice but to finally respond to the grievances and demands of François Legault. Because its electoral rivals will promise full respect for Quebec’s skills (in the case of the Bloc Québécois), or at the very least loyalty to the conservative tradition of less interference (although leader Pierre Poilievre has recently encroached on this legacy, in matters housing and carbon pricing). However, although he is thus weakened, Mr. Trudeau will not give in beyond the little movement conceded on Friday.
François Legault promises to reveal his game by this summer in order to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion and, above all, to gain real powers in immigration. His options for thus forcing Justin Trudeau’s hand, and demonstrating that his autonomy is not doomed to hit a federalist wall, however, seem increasingly limited.