(Caracas) “Hasta la victoria siempre” promises the government, “Until the end” swears the opposition: some 21 million Venezuelans are voting on Sunday in a tense presidential election between the outgoing president Nicolas Maduro, who is seeking a third six-year term, and the diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.
The 30,000 polling stations will remain open until 6 p.m. with results expected overnight.
Both sides are confident of winning. Experts say turnout is a key factor in the election, with the opposition needing a strong turnout to win.
“I recognize and will recognize the electoral arbiter, the official statements and I will enforce them,” Maduro said after voting in Caracas, amid concerns from the opposition about fraud or manipulation.
PHOTO PALAIS DE MIRAFLORES PALACE PROVIDED BY REUTERS
Outgoing President Nicolas Maduro voted in Caracas.
Queues formed outside several polling stations. “I have been here since 4:30 in the morning, I hope that the day will be fruitful and that the option for which I came to vote, namely Edmundo González Urrutia, will triumph. I hope that there will be democracy” in Venezuela, Griselda Barroso, 54, a lawyer, told AFP.
“I’m with him, I’m a Madurista, he’s going to take care of everything, everything is going to improve. I’m happy because there’s been a lot of education, which wasn’t the case before. The poor, the children couldn’t go to university,” says María de Rivero, 83, a voter in the 23 January neighborhood, a stronghold of power.
Ten candidates are in the running, but the election is coming down to a duel between Mr Maduro, 61, who is seeking a third six-year term, and the discreet Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, 74, who replaced at short notice the charismatic opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was declared ineligible.
Polls show the opposition ahead by a wide margin, but some observers say the fight is close. Citing other figures, the regime claims to be confident of victory.
Heir to Hugo Chavez, the former socialist-inspired president from 1999 until his death in 2013, Mr. Maduro, who relies on the army and police harassment of the opposition, regularly promises that he will not give up power, predicting chaos without him.
Oil crisis
“The future of Venezuela for the next 50 years will be decided on July 28, between a Venezuela of peace or violence. Peace or war,” he said, after having mentioned a possible “bloodbath in a fratricidal civil war provoked by the fascists.”
These remarks “scared” Brazilian President Lula, for whom “Maduro must learn that when you win, you stay [au pouvoir]. When we lose, we leave.”
Sunday “will undoubtedly be the most important democratic expression of the people in recent years,” Gonzalez Urrutia said on Saturday, inviting “citizens to go to their polling stations at the end of the day and see the clarity of the results obtained.”
PHOTO FEDERICO PARRA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia
“There is a movement for change,” says Luis Salamanca, a professor at the Central University of Venezuela. Under “normal” voting conditions, “there will be an extremely broad victory for the opposition.”
Most pollsters estimate that Mr Maduro will not exceed 30% and put the opposition at between 50 and 70%.
The oil country, long one of the richest in Latin America, is bled dry, mired in an unprecedented economic crisis.
As a result of mismanagement and corruption, oil production collapsed from over three million barrels/day to just under 1 million. GDP shrank by 80% in ten years with hyperinflation forcing the authorities to partially dollarize the economy.
Army attitude
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed on Sunday that “the Venezuelan people deserve an election that truly reflects their will, free from manipulation.”
Seven million Venezuelans – a quarter of the country’s 30 million population – have fled the country. Most of those who remain live in poverty, with health and education systems in complete disrepair.
The government accuses the “criminal blockade” of being the root of all evils. The United States had tightened its sanctions in an attempt to oust Mr. Maduro after his contested re-election in 2018, in a vote marred by fraud according to the opposition, which led to demonstrations that were severely repressed.
Washington tried to force Mr Maduro into “democratic and competitive” elections without influencing Caracas, which notably confirmed Mr Maduro’s ineligibility.me Machado and withdrew his invitation to the European Union to observe the vote.
At the same time, the White House, eager to revive Venezuelan production in a context of tension over crude, has opened the door with operating permits for foreign oil companies.
Many fear that the current president, often described as a “dictator” by the opposition, will try to distort the game.
One of the keys will be the attitude of the security apparatus. “The Bolivarian National Armed Force supports me,” says Mr. Maduro. His rival, Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, calls on the military to “respect and enforce respect” [la] “sovereign will” of the people.