(Washington) The US trade deficit widened more than expected in September to a record high, weighed down by the drop in US exports generated by the resurgence of the pandemic while US consumer demand held up rather well.
The deficit of goods and services with the rest of the world amounted to 80.9 billion dollars, an increase of 11.2% compared to the previous month. Imports were up 0.6% to $ 288.5 billion, but exports fell 3% to $ 207.6 billion.
Analysts were expecting a much smaller deficit ($ 74.8 billion).
Cumulated over the first nine months of the year, the deficit widens by 33.1% compared to the same period of 2020 which was marked by the historic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The widening of the deficit is the fourth in five months.
In September alone, the world’s largest economy exported far less industrial supplies such as crude oil, petroleum products and precious metals. Its exports of semiconductors, computer accessories and aircraft engines are also down.
In contrast, the United States imported more capital goods, computers, electrical appliances, mobile phones. Imports of cars and automotive equipment fell.
The deficit widened by $ 8.1 billion. “This is the largest amount recorded in a month since July 2020,” noted Mahir Rasheed, economist at Oxford Economics.
He points out that the deficit is also higher by 39.3 billion compared to its level before the pandemic in February 2020.
“We expect the trade deficit to remain at a historically high level through the end of the year, although moderation in domestic demand is expected to slow import volumes as the vaccination campaign (in the world) and the ebb of the pandemic are expected to lead to growth in US exports, ”Rasheed commented.
Persistence of logistical problems
By region, the deficit widened by 12% with China in September. And since the start of the year, it has jumped by nearly 17%.
The deficit with Mexico, its major North American partner, widened by 34% in September, but fell by 2% over the three quarters.
Finally, if it fell over the month with the European Union (-2.8%), it widened by 25.6% cumulatively over nine months.
“Overall, trade has picked up, and exports and imports are above pre-pandemic levels,” summarized Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at HFE.
“But for now, flows continue to be distorted by supply chain disruptions and shortages,” she added.
These blockages stem from the unprecedented situation created by the pandemic: a strong rebound in demand, but factories that are not yet operating at full capacity and overdue deliveries due to outbreaks of infections and difficulties in recruiting workers who fear being infected in their turn.