In the context of the upcoming presidential election, a rare possibility of a tie in the Electoral College between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is being seriously considered. Both candidates could theoretically end up with 269 electoral votes each. If this happens, the House of Representatives will choose the president, with each state delegation having one vote. Given current political dynamics, the process could favor Trump, especially since Republicans hold a majority in the House.
This situation has only occurred once in the history of American democracy, back in 1800, when the electoral process was markedly different from today. For over two centuries, no presidential election has resulted in a tie between two candidates. However, several American media outlets are seriously considering this possibility this year due to the tight polls (new window) between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Multiple scenarios (new window) could lead to a perfect tie, with each candidate receiving 269 of the 538 electoral votes, as reported by the specialized website ‘270 to win’. CNN highlights the scenario that seems most plausible. If Kamala Harris wins in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada while also securing one electoral vote from Nebraska, yet loses in Pennsylvania and Georgia, the result would be a tie (with all other states being considered as already won by either candidate, barring any major surprises). The five key states mentioned were won by Joe Biden in 2020, making this scenario far from impossible.
What Happens in Case of a Tie?
If no candidate achieves a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment of the Constitution outlines the procedure to select a winner. The House of Representatives would then take charge on January 6, 2025. Following the electoral vote on that date, if a tie persists, each of the 50 state delegations would have one vote, regardless of their geographical or demographic size. Thus, Wyoming, with its fewer than 600,000 residents, would weigh equally in the outcome as California, which has over 18 million inhabitants.
The candidate who secures at least 26 votes would be declared the President of the United States. This scenario could be advantageous for Donald Trump: Republicans currently hold a majority in the House, with 26 seats to 22, a lead that may increase following the November 5 elections. Presently, Trump is polling ahead in more states than Kamala Harris, regardless of the total vote count. The Democratic candidate would likely win in fewer states, even though those might include major urban areas like California or New York.
Does Trump Have the Upper Hand?
Lawmakers, under the prescribed procedure, have discretion over how they cast their single collective vote for each state delegation. They could either vote based on their personal beliefs or align with the choice made by the voters. For instance, Kamala Harris could win the November election in Arizona, but the state’s representatives in the next Congress will likely be Republican: will they remain loyal to their party or honor the voters’ decision?
In either case, the mathematical advantage appears to lie with Donald Trump (according to current polling), with a greater number of states won and more lawmakers on his side. Meanwhile, the Senate will choose the vice president. With Democrats currently in control, the Senate could also shift to Republican hands during the renewal of a third of its seats on November 5.
American representatives must select a president ahead of the inauguration scheduled for January 20. If this perfect tie situation extends beyond that date, the vice president chosen by the Senate would temporarily assume the presidency. In 1800, under very different circumstances, it took 36 rounds of voting in the House of Representatives to finally elect Thomas Jefferson as President of the United States.