He is determined to restore American manufacturing to its former glory. He considers free trade a bad word and he wants Canada to voluntarily intervene in a failed, gang-ridden state of Haiti.
Sure, President Joe Biden isn’t Donald Trump, but it’s not always obvious.
The President of the United States arrives in Ottawa on Thursday evening as part of a whirlwind 24-hour visit, with a less busy itinerary than that envisaged by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office.
Two full years have passed since Joe Biden took charge in Washington.
“This will be the first real face-to-face bilateral meeting between the two leaders in Canada since 2009,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
Mr. Biden’s first year in office has been dedicated to rebuilding Canada-U.S. relations after his predecessor Donald Trump’s controversial tenure. The second focused on compliance, “including prioritizing orderly and safe migration through regular channels,” Kirby said.
“Now, as we approach the third, this visit is to take stock of what we have done, where we are and what we need to prioritize for the future,” he stressed.
Although less unruly and publicly combative than his predecessor, Joe Biden’s first two years in the Oval Office caused a lot of headaches for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Friday meetings may not offer much respite.
One of the main priorities of the discussions for Canada will focus on the “Buy American”, the protectionist doctrine that has been used by all the presidents of the 21ste century, with the exception of George W. Bush, and it is one of Biden’s favorite national political messages.
“The President is very committed to policies that create jobs in the United States, and we don’t challenge that policy,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s Ambassador to the United States.
At least 60% of the material goods Canada exports to the United States “go into the making of other goods,” and the same goes for what Canada imports from the United States, Hillman pointed out.
“So if we start excluding ourselves from our supply chains, the economic impact on jobs in our own country will be enormous. We’re shooting each other in the foot, basically — both countries,” she admitted.
An intervention in Haiti
It should also be about Canada’s role in defending Haiti, the impoverished and earthquake-ravaged Caribbean nation that has become a failed state since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021.
Criminal gangs now control more than half of Port-au-Prince, the capital of a country struggling with a cholera epidemic with little access to medical aid, a near total lack of public security and a helpless interim government.
The Biden administration, which already has its hands full with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the rise of China and other big power concerns, wants Canada — home to a large diaspora of mostly French-speaking Haitians in Quebec — plays a leading role.
“There’s a lot of pressure,” said Carleton University professor Stephen Saideman. “The reality is that Trudeau doesn’t want to do this, and so he’s making every possible argument to distract. »
” I have good hope […] that Canada will be able to intervene and show leadership in Haiti, because it will matter in Washington,” declared Gordon Giffin, who was Bill Clinton’s envoy to Ottawa from 1997 to 2001.
“Removing this from our menu would be a great help to the US administration,” he said.
While it may seem simplistic at the highest levels of intergovernmental relations, the quid pro quo approach is fundamental to how countries get along and deal with various irritants in the relationship, he suggested.
“I think this is a typical example of the United States saying, ‘We need you to help us on this,'” Mr. Giffin told a panel organized by the Council of the Americas.
He recalls frequent interactions between his former boss and Jean Chrétien, who was prime minister while Bill Clinton was in the White House.
Chrétien “looked for places where Bill Clinton needed a little help,” Giffin said.
“I was hearing very quickly, ‘OK, we’re going to do this, Gordon, but for that, I need this,'” he says in his best Jean Chretien impersonation.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby did not say on Wednesday whether Mr. Biden intends to make a direct request to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Haiti.
“As for a multinational force or something like that, I don’t want to preempt the conversation. As we have already said, if it is necessary, if there is a place for it, all of this will have to be settled directly with the Haitian government and with the UN. »
The Safe Third Country Agreement
Kirby also played down expectations for another big Canadian demand, the renegotiation of the Safe Third Country Agreement, a 2004 treaty between the two countries that many attribute to a recent spike. of irregular migration.
“We are well aware of the concerns of Canadians. We have our own concerns, said Mr. Kirby. It is a shared challenge. So I have no doubt that they will discuss it”.
Senior government officials in Ottawa believe the Haiti discussion will involve the two leaders, but not the Haitians themselves. So far, Justin Trudeau has focused on sanctions, helping Haitian authorities monitor gang activity and building political consensus on how best the West can help.
Saideman, who previously worked with the US Department of Defense, said Ottawa is trying to avoid this at all costs. “Our government does not want to incur huge costs or run huge risks. »
He noted that Canada’s largest deployment is currently in Latvia and that Ottawa has agreed to increase its presence to reinforce that country’s border with Russia.
Saideman said it would be impossible to expand that force while leading an intervention in Haiti, particularly because each unit deployed typically requires a second unit in training and a third in recovery from the previous rotation.
In addition, gang violence would be much more risky than previous missions aimed at preventing clashes between warring armies, such as in Bosnia or Cyprus.
“I’m not saying we shouldn’t, but I understand why the government is cautious about this,” said Saideman, who is director of the Canadian Defense and Security Network.
“In Haiti, this is not the first rodeo,” he said. Previous missions did not help matters and did not lead to a lasting solution. »
With the collaboration of Dylan Robertson in Ottawa