By the end of the century, the U.S. population will decline without substantial immigration, seniors will outnumber children, and non-Hispanic white residents will make up less than 50 percent of the population, according to projections released Thursday by the Census Bureau the United States.
Population projections offer a glimpse of what the nation might look like at the turn of the next century, although forecasting several decades into the future cannot predict the unexpected like a global pandemic.
Projections can help the United States prepare for change, whether it’s anticipating health care demands for seniors or providing insight into how many schools will need to be built over the next few years. decades, said Paul Ong, professor of public affairs at UCLA.
“As most demographers realize, the population projection is not an inevitable destiny, but simply a glimpse of a possible future,” Mr Ong said. Seeing this possibility also opens opportunities for action. »
Demographic changes are caused by births and deaths, which are more predictable, and by immigration, which is more uncertain. For this reason, the Census Bureau offers three different projections through 2100, based on high, medium, and low immigration.
Under the low immigration scenario, the U.S. population will fall to 319 million by 2100, from the current population of 333 million. It would amount to 365 million people at the end of the century in the average immigration scenario and to 435 million inhabitants in the case of high immigration. Whatever the immigration scenario, the country is poised to age and diversify.
College-aged Americans and younger are already part of a majority-minority cohort.
Here’s a look at how the U.S. population is expected to change by 2100, using the average immigration scenario.
Years 2020-2030
By 2029, seniors will outnumber children, with 71 million U.S. residents aged 65 and older and 69 million residents under 18.
The numerical superiority of older people will result in fewer workers. Combined with children, they will represent 40% of the population. Only about 60 percent of the working-age population – ages 18 to 64 – will pay the bulk of taxes for Social Security and Medicare.
In the United States, “natural increase” will turn negative in 2038, meaning that deaths will exceed births due to an aging population and declining fertility.
The Census projects 13,000 more deaths than births in the United States, and this deficit will rise to 1.2 million more deaths than births by 2100.
Years 2050-2060
By 2050, the share of the U.S. population that is white and non-Hispanic will be below 50% for the first time.
Currently, 58.9% of U.S. residents are white and non-Hispanic. By 2050, Hispanic residents will represent a quarter of the U.S. population, up from 19.1% today. African Americans will make up 14.4% of the population, up from 13.6% currently. Asians will represent 8.6% of the population, compared to 6.2% today.
Also in the 2050s, Asians will surpass Hispanics as the largest immigrant group.
The nation’s growing diversity will be most visible among children. By the 2060s, non-Hispanic white children will make up a third of the population under 18, up from less than half currently.
Years 2080-2090
Under this average immigration scenario, the U.S. population will peak at more than 369 million in 2081. After that, the Census Bureau predicts a slight population decline, with deaths outpacing births and immigration.
By the late 2090s, the foreign population will account for nearly 19.5 percent of U.S. residents, the highest share since the Census Bureau began tracking it in 1850. The highest rate previously was 14.8% in 1890. It is currently 13.9%.
How reliable will the numbers be, especially as racial and ethnic definitions change and immigration levels are difficult to predict?
Although there is an extreme level of uncertainty projecting nearly eight decades into the future, it is a good place to start, said Mr. Ong, the UCLA professor.
“Over 80 years, birth and death rates, fertility rates and migration rates can be changed through policies, programs and resources,” Mr Ong said.