(Sydney) US officials say they have little fear China will attack Nancy Pelosi’s plane if she flies to Taiwan. But the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives would walk into one of the hottest places on earth, where an accident, misstep or misunderstanding could put her safety at risk. The Pentagon is therefore developing plans for any eventuality.
Posted at 6:24 a.m.
Updated at 9:33 a.m.
Officials told The Associated Press that if Mme Pelosi goes to Taiwan – which is still an uncertainty – the military would increase the movement of its forces and its resources in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used.
Any foreign travel by a senior US executive requires additional security. But officials said this week that a visit to Taiwan by Mme Pelosi – she would be the highest elected American to travel to Taiwan since 1997 – would go above and beyond the usual safety precautions for trips to less risky destinations.
Asked about the military measures planned to protect Mme Pelosi in the event of a visit, U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday that discussing any specific trips was premature. But, he added, “if it is decided that (House) Speaker Pelosi or someone else is going to travel and they request military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure the smooth course of their visit. And I’ll leave it at that. »
China considers Taiwan its own territory and has raised the possibility of annexing it by force. The United States maintains informal relations and defense ties with Taiwan even though it recognizes Beijing as the government of China.
The trip is being considered at a time when China has stepped up what the United States and its allies in the Pacific describe as risky clashes with other armies to assert their vast territorial claims. Incidents have included dangerously close overflights that force other pilots to deviate to avoid collisions, or the harassment or obstruction of air and sea crews, including with blinding lasers or water cannons.
Dozens of such maneuvers have taken place this year alone, Ely Ratner, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, noted on Tuesday at a South China Sea forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. China denies the incidents.
US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues, described the need to create buffer zones around the House speaker and her plane. The United States already has substantial forces spread across the region, so any increased security could largely be handled by assets already in place.
Members should also be prepared for any incident ― even an accident in the air or on the ground. They said the United States would need nearby rescue capabilities and suggested that could include helicopters on ships already in the area.
Mme Pelosi has not publicly confirmed any new Taiwan travel plans. She was supposed to leave in April, but postponed the trip after testing positive for COVID-19.
The White House on Monday declined to comment directly on the matter, noting that it had not confirmed the trip. But President Joe Biden raised concerns about it last week, telling reporters the military thought his trip was “not a good idea right now”.
US officials said the administration doubts China will take direct action against Mr.me Pelosi herself or attempts to sabotage the visit. But they do not rule out the possibility that China could step up provocative overflights by military aircraft near Taiwanese airspace and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait if the trip takes place. And they are not ruling out the possibility of Chinese actions elsewhere in the region as a show of force.
Security analysts were divided on Tuesday over the extent of any threat on the trip and the need for additional military protection.
The biggest risk during M’s tripme Pelosi is that a Chinese show of force “goes wrong, or some type of accident that results from a provocative show of action,” said Mark Cozad, acting associate director of the International Center for Security and Defense Policy. at the Rand Corporation. “So it could be an air collision. It could be some kind of missile test, and, again, when you’re doing this stuff, you know, there’s always the possibility of something going wrong. »
Barry Pavel, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, scoffed at the idea reported by US officials to use aircraft carriers and warplanes to provide security for Mme Pelosi. “Obviously the White House doesn’t want the president to go and I think that’s why you’re getting some of these suggestions. »
“She’s not going to leave with an armada,” he added.
They also said that an enhanced US military presence to protect Mme Pelosi risked escalating tensions.
“It is very possible that […] our attempts at deterrence actually send a very different signal than we intend to send, argued Cozad. And so you walk into […] a sort of spiral of escalation, where our attempts at deterrence are actually seen as increasingly provocative and vice versa. And that can be a very dangerous dynamic. »