US officials are investigating the possibility that a misfired Russian air defense missile caused the crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in Kazakhstan, killing 38. The Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, encountered issues while attempting to land. Azerbaijan accuses Russia of involvement, while the Kremlin urges caution. Survivors are being repatriated, and El Al has suspended flights to Moscow. This incident echoes the 2014 Malaysia Airlines tragedy linked to Russian forces.
Similar to Azerbaijan, the United States is also considering the possibility that a misfire from Russian air defense could be responsible for the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in Kazakhstan. A representative from the US government has indicated that initial evidence points to the aircraft potentially being shot down, as reported by various news outlets. If these early assessments are confirmed, it raises concerns that inadequately trained Russian forces may have misidentified the aircraft while attempting to intercept Ukrainian drones.
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The incident, which occurred near Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, resulted in the loss of 38 lives out of 67 passengers on board. Fortunately, 29 individuals survived, although many suffered serious injuries. The Embraer 190 aircraft, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, was en route from Baku to Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya when it met with disaster. On the same morning, Russian air defense systems were activated across several regions in the North Caucasus due to threats posed by Ukrainian drones.
Speculation regarding potential damage from Russian air defense systems emerged early on, shared by both Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian officials. Flight tracking services, such as Flightradar24, noted irregularities in the GPS data indicating the aircraft’s position over Russia. Furthermore, photos of the wreckage revealed small punctures resembling shrapnel damage from anti-aircraft missiles.
Baku’s Accusations Intensify
In response, the Kremlin cautioned against jumping to conclusions. However, by Thursday afternoon, Azerbaijani officials were actively promoting the theory that a Russian air defense missile, specifically the Pantsir-S system, had struck the aircraft. Media reports, citing unnamed sources in Baku, suggested that the plane sustained damage during its approach to Grozny.
A particularly contentious claim in Azerbaijan was that the aircraft was denied an emergency landing at nearby Russian airports due to adverse weather conditions. This forced the pilots to attempt a perilous maneuver over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau, where the plane ultimately crashed during a landing attempt amid fluctuating altitude and speed.
Returning Survivors to Azerbaijan
On Thursday, a plane from Azerbaijan’s disaster relief service transported seven additional injured survivors back to Baku. Prior to this, another flight had already repatriated several survivors and the deceased victims to their homeland.
In light of the ongoing developments in Russian airspace, Israeli airline El Al has canceled all flights between Tel Aviv and Moscow for the week. The airline plans to reassess the situation next week to determine the feasibility of resuming its operations.
Russian state media has remained silent on the serious allegations directed at them. During a press conference following a summit of the Eurasian Economic Union near St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin made no mention of the plane crash.
Recalling the 2014 Malaysian Boeing Incident
If the theory of a tragic misfire by Russian air defense is validated, this would mark the second such incident since 2014. Back then, the Ukrainian military was engaged in conflict in the east of the country against a covert Russian operation masquerading as a separatist uprising. On July 17, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines Boeing, traveling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was mistakenly brought down by a Russian Buk air defense system over eastern Ukraine, claiming 289 lives.
Moscow continues to reject any accountability for that disaster, dismissing it as a Western fabrication. However, thorough journalistic investigations and inquiries by Dutch authorities have traced the Buk system’s route from Russia into the conflict zone and back. In 2022, three Russian officials were sentenced to life in absentia by a Dutch court for their roles in the incident.
Implications for Relations with Moscow
This situation presents a different dynamic, especially given the presence of survivors who may serve as witnesses. The Netherlands, which faced significant losses in 2014, has come to view Russia as a hostile entity. Conversely, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are nations that Moscow typically considers allies.
Energy-rich Azerbaijan, like Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, enjoys a degree of independence from Russia, allowing it to adopt a more assertive stance. In contrast, Kazakhstan, which shares a lengthy border with Russia and has a substantial Russian minority, must navigate the situation with greater caution. To date, Kazakh authorities overseeing the investigation into the crash have refrained from making public statements regarding its cause.