Growth in the United States defied predictions of recession in 2023, and even accelerated compared to the previous year, a key issue in the race for the White House, for which Donald Trump and Joe Biden could compete. confront each other again.
US gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated in 2023 to 2.5% from 1.9% the previous year, according to the Commerce Department’s first estimate, released Thursday.
The world’s largest economy is therefore escaping a recession, which had been widely predicted for more than a year.
Growth in the fourth quarter alone staved off fate, standing at 3.3% annualized, a measure favored by the United States, which compares GDP to that of the previous quarter then projects the development over the entire year. at this rate.
This certainly represents a slowdown from 4.9% in the third quarter, but it is more than the 2.0% that was expected by analysts, according to the Market Watch consensus.
“Growth in the fourth quarter was stronger than expected, driven by strong consumer spending,” commented Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics.
Consumption, the main engine of the American economy, remained solid over the past year, despite purchasing power being eroded on the one hand by inflation and on the other by rising interest rates. .
Because wages have also increased, and since mid-2023, their increase has been stronger than that of prices.
“Bidenomics”
The Biden administration, taking advantage of this unexpected “soft landing” at the start of the electoral campaign, continues to praise the effects of its economic policy, “Bidenomics”.
Especially since it is a duel with former Republican President Donald Trump that seems to be taking shape. However, he regularly highlights the good health of the American economy when he was in the White House, but also of household finances, before the surge in prices.
And it is Joe Biden that voters blame for this episode of high inflation. Surveys measuring their morale and confidence, however, seem to be improving.
The subject will be crucial for the presidential election in November.
To curb high inflation, which in June 2022 reached a level not seen since the early 1980s, 9.1% over one year, the American central bank (Fed) raised its rates eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023. .
With inflation having now slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in December, it is now planning to lower them in the coming months, which will make credit more affordable for households.
However, it should maintain them at their current level, between 5.25 and 5.50%, during its next meeting, which will be held Tuesday and Wednesday.
GDP went on a roller coaster ride in 2020 and 2021, first recording the biggest decline in GDP since 1946 (-3.5%) and two months of recession due to Covid-19, then the strongest growth since 1984 : 5.9%.