A tough week ahead in Washington, where the most radical fringe of Republicans in the House of Representatives, mostly loyal to former President Donald Trump, seems determined to bring about a halt to government activities in the United States, starting from 1er next October at midnight. A disaster scenario for millions of state employees as well as millions of families, thus taken hostage by polarized political currents clashing for months in Congress. Autopsy of a developing seizure.
What could cause this shutdown?
Government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass bills to fund government agencies, or to agree on a temporary extension of current funding. This is a formality, except when the procedure finds itself at the heart of political storms, as at the moment.
Indeed, within the Republican Party, a minority of extremist elected officials, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, emulator of Donald Trump in Georgia, or Matt Gaetz, of Florida, are among, seeking to exploit the slim majority of the Republican Party in the House, by barely ten votes, to impose their ultraconservative political program. This hard core, made up of around twenty representatives, regularly opposes bills brought by the Republican leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, or demands significant modifications and concessions before signing them.
Since 1976, there have been 21 shutdowns of government activities, amid a legislative crisis. They lasted from a few hours to more than a month.
What are the radicals demanding to avoid a shutdown of government activities?
On September 12, the leader of the Republicans in the House launched an impeachment investigation against Joe Biden in order to partially respond to their numerous demands. In vain. The group wants even more and is demanding, among other things, significant reductions in government spending, particularly in social programs created or strengthened since the Democrats’ return to the White House. The sectors of food aid, education, health, immigration, but also the fight against opioid overdoses are in their sights.
For several of these radicals, approval of the plan to finance government activities has also become conditional on the defense of their ideological regime – which attacks, among other things, freedom of expression, art and culture or respect differences — and the decline in financial aid sent by the United States to Ukraine.
Does Donald Trump play a role in this political crisis?
Behind the scenes, yes! For several months, the ex-president and favorite candidate of the Republicans for the next presidential election has been stirring up divisions in his own camp in Congress in the hope of taking advantage of it. The impeachment inquiry into his successor is a victory for him. Donald Trump is cultivating legislative impasse on government funding to better advance his demands to reduce the budget of the federal Department of Justice. He regularly accuses this ministry of leading a political charge against him.
Remember that the populist faces 91 counts of economic fraud, attempted corruption and inciting an insurrection aimed at keeping him in the White House, against the will of the ballot box, in 2020.
On Monday, the populist proclaimed that Joe Biden would be held responsible by the Americans for a paralysis of the government, even if it will be caused by dissension within the Republicans. An assertion that smacks of revenge for Donald Trump, who had to face three shutdowns of government activities during his presidency, including one lasting 35 days, the longest in the history of the country. It was between December 2018 and January 2019. Financing his wall on the southern border of the United States was at the heart of the dispute. Ironically, both houses of Congress were Republican-majority at the time. It was the arrival of a Democratic majority in the House in mid-January that made it possible to emerge from the crisis.
Late Sunday evening, on his social network, the ex-president called in capital letters on his loyal subjects in Congress to “shut down Washington […] until [qu’ils obtiennent] everything” they demand.
Who will be affected by this paralysis of the government apparatus?
From 1er October, at midnight, millions of federal employees risk being exposed to late pay, including at least two million military personnel across the country. The government shutdown will affect FBI investigators and other police officers as well as officials in the justice, transportation, education, health and social services sectors, including White House staff. During the last shutdown, 1,100 of the 1,800 people employed by the headquarters of the executive power were placed on technical unemployment.
NASA, financial market surveillance bodies, park services, services issuing several permits and passports will also be affected, as will several workers deemed essential, such as those in postal services, air traffic control or emergency measures. The latter will not, however, be put on forced leave, but will be forced to work without pay.
The travel sector alone estimates the losses caused by a shutdown of government activities at 140 million US dollars per day. A few days ago, Goldman Sachs estimated that a shutdown would reduce U.S. economic growth by 0.2% each week.
Is there a way out?
If so, it is very difficult to see. The Republican radicals have many demands, ranging from debt reduction to an end to aid to Ukraine, but above all seek to put obstacles in the way of the Biden government, at all costs, to demonstrate its dysfunction and thus take political advantage from it.
Last week, Kevin McCarthy failed to pass a temporary funding extension. Twice he failed to pass a defense spending bill, which usually passes without issue.
Dilemma for him: a coalition made up of Democrats and more moderate Republicans, who fear that a government shutdown induced by their camp would compromise their re-election in 2024, could easily allow the adoption of a law on the extension of the budget of the State and thus avoid paralysis. But hardliners within the Republican Party have warned: if Kevin McCarthy authorized such a scenario, everything would be done by the radical fringe of the party to knock him out of his seat, which he obtained with difficulty. , at the cost of compromise with elected officials who now hold the proper functioning of the country in their hands.