While the country has been plunged into a deep economic and political crisis for several years, everything is changing. And relations with the United States are warming.
On October 17, on the island of Barbados, the government and the opposition agreed: in the second half of next year, there will be a presidential election, as provided for in the constitutional calendar. THE government undertakes not to disrupt the opposition primary and on D-day foreign observer missions are welcome.
Seen from a European democracy, all this seems completely normal… but Venezuela has been trying to find a compromise for five years. Five years since Nicolas Maduro was fraudulently re-elected, five years since the country has been crumbling under international sanctions and sinking straight to the bottom.
Oil sanctions relief
In turn, this agreement triggers a whole series of good news. The most spectacular is that there is now no longer an American embargo on Venezuelan oil. Lhe United States eases its sanctions.
During six months, or even more if the political situation is considered satisfactory, Caracas will once again be able to export without going through the black market. And even if the country does not have the technical capacity to increase its production, petrodollars will once again enter the coffers.
Of For their part, the United Nations announced the release of a fund of three billion dollars, financed by Venezuelan accounts blocked abroad, money which must be devoted to social expenditure. This fund was until now frozen, the government and the opposition could not agree on how it should be managed. It is now settled.
Release of political prisoners
We are far from the time when Nicolas Maduro, whom Donald Trump described as “dictator”, got angry with “American imperialism“. For several months the Venezuelan president, still not recognized by Washington, has multiplied the pledges of goodwill.
Like this release of five political prisoners just hours after the announcement of the reduction of American sanctions.
“Let’s turn the page” he said on October 18, “let’s rebuild a relationship of respect and cooperation“. In January he even said to himself “totally ready for a normalization process”. Lapidary response this week from the head of American diplomacy for Latin America: “we are not ready for a change in diplomatic relations“. Not until there has been a real democratic transition.
The United States’ action today is primarily economic, motivated by the oil crisis caused by the war in Ukraine: new suppliers must be found to replace part of Russian oil. Since last year, agreements have already allowed Venezuela to export a small part of its production to the United States. Political normalization will wait and Washginton warns that all these relaxations can be modified or revoked at the slightest misstep by Venezuela.