On the 81st day of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian pressure remains strong in the east of the country, by kyiv’s own admission, convinced of winning after Russian setbacks on the battlefield, and accompanied by a victory in Eurovision giving balm to the heart of the country at war while Finland must formalize its application for NATO membership this Sunday.
The essential
The situation on the military front
Fighting continues in Donbass
Russian pressure remains strong in eastern Ukraine, by kyiv’s own admission, convinced of winning after Russian setbacks on the battlefield.
“The situation in Donbass remains very difficult. Russian troops are trying to achieve at least one victory there”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on Saturday. “Little by little, we are forcing the occupiers to leave our lands”.
Russian forces are trying to advance in this strategic region in the east, partly controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014, and which Moscow has made its main objective since the withdrawal of its troops from around kyiv at the end of March.
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Ukraine is preparing for major offensives
“We are preparing for major offensives in Severodonetsk, and around the Lyssytchansk-Bakhmout axis”said Sergei Gaïdaï, Ukrainian governor of the Lugansk region, describing an increasingly critical humanitarian situation.
“The Lugansk region is constantly under chaotic fire (…) there is absolutely no gas, water or electricity”he said on Saturday evening.
In particular, the Russians have been trying for three weeks, without success, to cross the Severskyi Donets river, at the level of the village of Bilogorivka, in the Lugansk region.
Gradual liberation of Kharkiv?
The situation seems to have changed around Kharkiv, the country’s second city. Russian forces had to withdraw from several localities northeast of the city, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
But according to the American Institute for War Studies (ISW), “Ukraine and its Western partners probably have only a small window of opportunity to support a counter-offensive in the occupied territories” by Russia. Vladimir Putin “probably intends to annex southern and eastern Ukraine to the Russian Federation in the coming months”, according to this institute.
Negotiations to evacuate the last resistance fighters from Mariupol
“Very difficult” negotiations are taking place over the fate of the last defenders of the strategic port city of Mariupol for the evacuation of seriously injured Ukrainian soldiers who are in the basements of the Azovstal steelworks, last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol, besieged by Russian forces.
International efforts have been unsuccessful so far to save these Ukrainian soldiers defending this city 90% destroyed by Russian bombing.
The diplomatic situation and international reactions
NATO hails Ukraine’s Eurovision win
Ukraine’s victory at the Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday evening galvanized the Ukrainian president, more determined than ever to win on the battlefield as well: “Our courage impresses the world, our music conquers Europe”.
Several European leaders have followed suit, hailing this highly symbolic success of Ukraine in this competition, very popular in Europe, and from which Russia was excluded.
Eurovision victory shows “the immense public support” in the country, according to NATO.
“Please help Ukraine and Mariupol! Help Azovstal”urged on stage the Ukrainian singer of the Kalush Orchestra, winner of Eurovision.
Finland on the verge of formalizing its application for NATO membership
NATO member countries are “on the right track” to find a consensus on the integration of Finland and Sweden, judged the head of Croatian diplomacy on Sunday, Berlin even assuring that their accession could intervene “very quickly”.
The last-minute opposition displayed by Turkey, a member of the Alliance, to the integration of the two Nordic countries casts uncertainty over the outcome of the process.
Finland must formalize its candidacy for NATO this Sunday, before a decisive meeting of the ruling party in Sweden with a view to a probable request for joint membership of the two countries.
The end of Finland’s military neutrality would be a “error”, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone interview with his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö, according to a Kremlin statement.
The G7 wants additional sanctions targeting sectors on which Russia is “dependent”
G7 foreign ministers pledged on Saturday “to broaden the sanctions” economic targets targeting Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine in “sectors on which Russia is particularly dependent” while urging China to “do not undermine” these measures.
The seven major economic powers want “accelerate efforts” for “put an end to dependence on Russian energy”, according to the communiqué issued after a three-day meeting in northern Germany. They “call on China not to support Russia in the attack” from Ukraine.
Another statement: the G7 “will never recognize” the borders that Russia wants to impose by force with its war in Ukraine.
Moscow denounces a “total hybrid war” led by the West
In a speech, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, denounced the multiple sanctions imposed by the West against Moscow and tried to present Russia as the target, and not the author, of the aggression. “Collectively, the West has declared an all-out Hybrid War against us and it’s hard to predict how long this will last, but it’s clear the consequences will be felt by everyone, without exception”did he declare. “We did everything to avoid a direct confrontation – but now that the challenge has been issued, of course we accept it.”
kyiv will win the war “before the end of the year”, predicts the head of Ukrainian military intelligence
The war in Ukraine will experience a “turning point” in August and Russia will be defeated “before the end of the year”, predicted the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, assuring that kyiv would manage to reconquer all of its territory. Victory will not be “not easy”, but “she will come”declared Kyrylo Boudanov in an interview with the British channel Sky News published on Friday evening, where he appears serene and says to himself “optimistic” given the current evolution of the conflict.
The humanitarian situation and solidarity with Ukrainians
Nearly 16,000 Ukrainian students educated in France
Nearly 16,000 students, 15,913 to be exact, arrived from Ukraine are currently enrolled in French territory, announces the Ministry of National Education. That’s 3,014 more than a week ago. In detail, 39% of these students are welcomed in elementary school, 32% in college, 19% in kindergarten and 10% in high school.
– Ministry of Education
More than six million refugees have left Ukraine
More than six million Ukrainians have fled their country since the beginning of the invasion by the Russian army on February 24, the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Geneva said on Thursday. As of May 11, 6,029,705 Ukrainians had first sought refuge in neighboring countries before often continuing their odyssey, according to the dedicated UNHCR website. Poland hosts by far the largest number of refugees (3,272,943 as of May 11).
Women and children represent 90% of these refugeesmen aged 18 to 60, likely to be mobilized, not having the right to leave.
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