(Washington) The unemployment rate climbed in May in the United States, to 4%, a symbolic bar that it has exceeded for the first time since January 2022, but, paradoxically, job creations were much more numerous than in April, five months before the presidential election.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 point, from 3.9% to 4%, according to figures released Friday by the Labor Department.
Creations were much more solid than expected, since 272,000 jobs were created in May, compared to 165,000 in April – a figure revised downwards.
These figures come from two different surveys, one carried out among businesses, the other among households, which may explain these developments in apparently opposite directions.
The unemployment rate was expected to be stable by analysts, at 3.9%, and only 190,000 job creations were expected, according to the Market Watch consensus.
“Employment continued its upward trend in several sectors, led by health care; public services ; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific and technical services,” detailed the Department of Labor.
Job creation in the private sector alone suffered from a sharp deterioration in the manufacturing sector, the monthly ADP/Stanford Lab survey showed on Wednesday.
But in April, the number of vacancies fell to its lowest level since February 2021 to 8.06 million compared to 8.35 million the month before, according to figures from the Labor Department.
“Great resignation”
The employment situation is being observed very closely by the American central bank (Fed), in its fight against the still high inflation in the United States. Because without a return to normal on the employment front, it is difficult to imagine a lasting drop in inflation.
The country has in fact experienced a significant labor shortage since 2021, and, to attract candidates and retain their employees, companies had in fact offered higher salaries and more advantageous conditions, ultimately driving up prices. costs.
This led to the “Great Resignation” movement, with employees massively changing jobs to take advantage of these favorable conditions.
Thus, the employment figures in May “rather support a patient position” from the Fed, regarding an upcoming rate cut, details Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for HFE.
The latter highlights in particular the fact that “the salary data, which showed an acceleration in monthly and annual variations, was disappointing, creating an unpleasant surprise”.
To curb inflation, the Fed has maintained very high rates since last summer, in the range of 5.25 to 5.50%, their highest level in 20 years.
This policy leads banks to offer loans at higher rates to their customers, whether they are households or businesses.
The next Fed meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is expected to keep rates there. No decline is expected by market participants before the meetings in September or November.