Following the midterm elections last November, and despite recent controversy over confidential documents found at his personal home, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, demonstrated during his address to the nation (“State of the Union”) held on February 7 that he is already campaigning for the presidency in 2024. The decision is not official, but his performance and words indicate that it is only a matter of time.
Certainly, its record of job creation and the lowest unemployment rate (3.49%) in 50 years give it some momentum. Despite the high rate of inflation, it has been falling for the past six months and the economic news is better than in 2022. Combining this with some legislative accomplishments in Congress, including bipartisan initiatives on infrastructure and manufacturing microchips, Biden and his troops seem excited for the next race.
During his speech, Biden defined the challenges and issues that will be at the center of the political debate in 2024. He returned to the theme of democracy against autocracy, to the fight to counter the effects of the cancellation of Roe v. wade on access to abortion, on the importance of the debt ceiling debate and on the need for reform of the police system. The presence of the late Tire Nichols’ mother in Congress did not detract from the President’s message.
The war in Ukraine and the recent episode concerning the incursion of a balloon from China over American airspace were presented as proof of its leadership on the international level.
In their rejoinder presented by Arkansas Governor and former Donald Trump spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Republicans portrayed the Biden administration as incompetent on several counts. Whether it concerns the management of the economy, the State’s debt, the management of immigration and the border with Mexico, the rise in crime and the exercise of American leadership globally, Republicans are unequivocal in their assessment of the President’s performance.
political mood
Thus, two visions and two different balance sheets are presented to the Americans less than two years from the next presidential election. The fact that some Republicans heckled the president several times during his speech demonstrates the depth of polarization in Congress.
House Speaker Republican Kevin McCarthy probably would have liked a more muted reaction from some members of his caucus. His discomfort was sometimes palpable. This demonstrates the tensions within the Republican Party and the grip that the Trumpists have on the governance of the party. Biden also had fun sowing discord among Republicans with his remarks on potential health and social security cuts.
An ABC News poll/washington post published on February 5 presents a political portrait of a country rather unhappy with its governance and the economic situation.
Despite last Tuesday’s speeches, a majority of Americans are generally dissatisfied with President Biden’s performance (53%) and only 31% of voters in the poll want him to run again.
Among the Republicans, Donald Trump retains his lead, but it seems fragile depending on the opponents who may show up. The name of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis undoubtedly emerges as the main threat to Trump.
Moreover, most polls indicate that the American people do not want a Biden-Trump takeover in 2024. The desire for change is increasingly on the agenda. We could therefore have surprises in the coming months regarding the two political parties.
The outlook for 2024
Overall, the president delivered an upbeat, partly educational speech and appealed to voters to help him finish his job. His energy and his exchanges with Republican opponents during the speech did not hurt.
Judging by the unity of the Democratic Party in Congress and among activists on the ground, in addition to enthusiasm for Biden’s achievements, it is fair to predict that the president will not be challenged if he decides to run again in 2024.
The eventual arrival of former South Carolina governor and former UN ambassador under Trump, Nikki Haley, indicates that a fight will take place for the Republican nomination.
Popular New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is another name circulating along with those of former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. In short, a fight is taking shape and we can already expect Donald Trump’s legal problems to be part of the deal.
In summary, if we can draw a conclusion from this speech to the nation, it is that the presidential campaign of 2024 is already underway.