At the end of the presidential primary elections for the states, the victories of Joe Biden and Donald Trump will have been almost complete. The fact remains that warning shots were heard in the Democratic and Republican primaries. Since their effects on the November presidential election are difficult to predict, it is good to know where and how the dissenting vote was most strongly expressed.
These blues who vote white
On the Democratic side, apart from dissatisfaction with the very choice of candidates, the main question was the determination of the extent to which the movement protesting President Biden’s policies regarding the war between Israel and Hamas would encounter opposition. the echo.
This movement could become more visible in states where the ballot adds the words “not committed” or “no preference” to the list of party candidates. This was precisely the case in Michigan, where, even before the February 27 election, the campaign calling for “abandon Biden” was beginning. Although commentators have confused “Arabs and Muslims”, the subject of the war became delicate given that Detroit has the largest concentration of Americans of Arab origin. Reaching 13%, the “uncommitted” vote of Democratic supporters then took on a certain political weight.
Subsequently, several regional media outlets noted that the movement was spreading to their state. On March 5, Super Tuesday, the blank vote was 13% in North Carolina and stood at 19% in Minnesota. He peaked the next day in the Hawaii presidential caucus with 29%. In subsequent elections, one in 10 people did the same in other states (Washington, Kansas, Missouri, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Mexico).
The numerical weight of the “no preference” vote cannot be the sole fact of the Arabic-speaking or Muslim electorate. Other social circles followed suit. In certain states, the spatialization of the vote suggests that other motivations weighed in the balance, starting with the choice offered. In Kentucky, the option rose to 18%, even taking the lead in a few rural counties.
In states where the option does not exist, some voters turned to author Marianne Williamson, opposed to the president’s policies. She received nearly 12% of the vote in South Dakota.
Raising a red flag
At the end of the race, the movement in favor of Nikki Haley seemed more like a cause than a campaign. Before the suspension of her campaign on March 6, the candidate had obtained the support of at least 20% of Republican supporters in 13 out of 24 states. Afterwards, this ratio was only transposed in 2 out of 26 states. This means that supporters continued to choose a candidate who withdrew.
In the Northeast states, the candidate won Vermont and the District of Columbia (the capital, Washington), with the support of half and 63% of voters, respectively. The movement won 43% of voters in New Hampshire and 37% of those in Massachusetts. Haley has reached a myriad of communities around Boston.
The southern states of the Atlantic coast make the political transition between the Northeast and the South of the country. Thus, 35% of Virginians were favorable to Haley. Some cities won with majorities ranging from two-thirds to three-quarters of voters, including Richmond and neighboring cities in the District of Columbia. In North Carolina, the vote jumped to 45% in Charlotte. The former South Carolina governor won the support of 4 in 10 people in the state, winning Charleston (62%) and the capital, Columbia (58%).
The problem lies in the deep red states of the South, the Plains and the Rockies, where the movement has rarely managed to reach 20% of the electorate. On the other hand, Haley obtained 43% of the votes in Utah and a third in Colorado, a former swing state turned Democratic. Salt Lake City and Denver mainly supported the candidate.
In the Great Lakes, Haley attracted more than a quarter of voters in Michigan and Minnesota, with the score jumping to 45 percent in Minneapolis.
American Violets
For decades, large regions of the country have been solidly blue or red, a divide that often contrasts urban centers and rural areas. In this context of division, the suburbs, often purple, constitute a crucial electoral issue. There are many more educated people there and the women’s vote, even when it is conservative, cannot be taken for granted.
It is unlikely that Democratic supporters who opposed the president would move to the ex-president’s camp. Democratic strategists rather fear that some of them will miss out in November by staying at home. As these voices have manifested themselves more strongly in the cities, the situation becomes thorny in the pivotal states narrowly won in 2020 (Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, etc.).
In Republican ranks, there is agreement that it is important to make gains beyond the hard core of Trump supporters by rallying independent voters. Haley will have been more than a comet if strategists take note that it is precisely in the cities of less divided – and often blue – states that it has had the most resonance.
Thus, the analysis of the dissident vote allows us to identify several “Achilles heel places” within the geopolitics of Democratic and Republican fragilities.