(New York) A day of massive promotions in stores and on the internet, Black Friday kicked off on Friday in the United States under the gaze of merchants who hope that consumers will be there, despite persistent inflation and concerns about the economic outlook.
At Macy’s, shoppers are there, braving the cold that has hit the city to stroll through the aisles of the famous New York department store, between a Santa Claus surrounded by disco balls and a family of stuffed foxes.
But experts remain cautious this year, as inflation has heightened fears of oversupply by retailers ahead of the holiday season.
Last year, the concerns were quite different, with the sector facing supply difficulties due to the disruption of global transport and factory closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Yesterday, the problem was supply shortages, today it’s having too much,” summarizes Neil Saunders, managing director of specialist firm GlobalData Retail.
According to him, the overflow of orders could benefit bargain hunters in many sectors, such as electronics or clothing.
“For this season, the local trade will have to work much more to ultimately achieve minimal gains,” he believes.
A trend that offers opportunities for consumers, like Carla Forbes, who started watching the promotions several weeks ago and finally bought a jacket at Macy’s for 79 dollars, instead of 225.
“It is now that the prices are the most interesting”, assures Mme Forbes, while regretting that such promotions do not apply to rising consumer products.
As of late Friday, online sales hit $7.28 billion and are expected to end the day between 9 billion and 9.2 billion, up about 2% from a year ago, according to data collected by Adobe.
Between Thanksgiving Thursday and Cyber Monday, Americans are expected to spend a total of €34.8 billion (CAD 41.4 billion) on online purchases over five days, or 2.8% more than last year at the same time, anticipates Adobe.
Economies that melt
The forecasts of Deloitte and the National Federation of Retail Trade anticipate a rise in prices below inflation, which was still in October of 7.7% over one year.
For Adobe, online holiday sales are expected to grow 2.5% this year, only a third of the increase seen a year ago at this time, and a sign of volume. probably declining.
The sector’s concern is also reflected in Europe, where Black Friday has been popular for about a decade.
Anne Campbell, a Scotswoman visiting New York for a few days, finds the atmosphere very different from the UK where worries about the energy crisis and the weakening economy are high.
“Times are tough for a lot of people in the UK,” she said, “in comparison it’s clear that people here are still spending a lot.”
So far, American consumers have shown themselves to be insensitive to the various crises experienced since the start of the pandemic, spending more than expected, even when the confidence indicators underlined their concerns.
Part of the explanation is to be found in unusually robust savings, with many households taking advantage of government aid during the pandemic, when consumption was at its lowest due to health restrictions.
But the cushion is starting to sag: after peaking at $2.5 trillion in mid-2021, US savings fell back to $1.7 trillion a year later, according to Moody’s.
And consumers with an annual income of less than $35,000 are the first to be affected, with a 39% drop in their savings over the first six months of the year. As a result, consumer credit is on the rise, according to data from the Federal Reserve.
Contrast painting
Quarterly results released by the retail sector gave a mixed picture of consumer health.
The Target chain took the hit, facing a sharp drop in purchases in October, presaging a bad Christmas season, and which expects a “very promotional” period and “very cautious” customers, according to its general manager Brian Cornell.
But at its competitor Lowe’s, which specializes in decoration, the mood is quite different, with a “solid” third quarter and no expected sign of slowing down. “We are not seeing anything resembling a downturn in purchases,” said its managing director, Marvin Ellison.
In the streets of New York, the crowd of buyers was in any case more compact than a year ago, assures Marvin Thomas, after buying a cap on sale. Inflation is “a big problem”, he says, “I’m not going to deny that it affects me, but you have to deal with it”.