The road to change has been bumpy for US President Joe Biden, who celebrates the first anniversary of his official entry into the White House on Thursday.
A year marked by the break with the populism of his predecessor, but also by the adoption of ambitious bills to rebuild the physical and social infrastructure of the country, projects whose scope has however been eclipsed by the persistence of a health crisis , by the effects of inflation on household budgets and by a political climate whose polarization has increased since his arrival in Washington.
The Democrat had promised to “heal and restore the soul of the United States”. After one year, he mostly falls into the category of presidents with the lowest average approval rating after a first year in office, at 48%. Just ahead of Donald Trump and his 38%. And the threats to the continuation of his presidency are still numerous…
domestic terrorism
Last week, the US Department of Justice announced the creation of a special unit dedicated to domestic terrorism. The need is urgent, as the number of FBI investigations into these threats has more than doubled since March 2020, said a senior official in the ministry responsible for national security, Matthew Olsen, before elected members of Congress.
“A growing threat comes from people driven by racial hatred, but also from those who subscribe to extremist anti-government and anti-authority ideologies,” he said. Opposition movements still supported and fueled, moreover, by the former American president, whose influence within the Republican Party and elected members of the House is still very strong.
Legislative Obstructions
“The rise of anti-democratic attitudes on the American right poses an existential threat to everyone, including Joe Biden, analyzes Elliott Fullmer, professor of political science at Randolph-Macon College, joined in Virginia. The problem is that at the same time, the president is losing a lot of support, and more specifically enthusiasm, among young voters”, which, in the run-up to the mid-term elections in November, he believes could accentuate the Democrats pullback, should that pullback occur. Denigrated by campaigning Republicans for his longevity in Washington’s political and legislative apparatus, Joe Biden has tried to turn critics around by presenting himself instead as the candidate with the experience and skill to navigate the currents. contradictions of the American Congress.
A year later, he has partly kept his promises, managing to pass two massive budget plans in the first months of his presidency, to revive the American economy affected by the pandemic and to rebuild the country’s infrastructure.
Not without having had to deal with opposition also coming from his own camp.
The rise of anti-democratic attitudes on the American right poses an existential threat to everyone, including Joe Biden
“Joe Biden literally has no room for maneuver with a Senate divided 50 against 50 between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, summarizes political scientist Frank Baumgartner, professor at the University of North Carolina. He has therefore become the hostage of the most conservative members of his own party”, who do not hesitate to take advantage of this fragile mathematics.
However, by playing the obstruction, as they have just done again by opposing the adoption of a federal law aimed at protecting the exercise of democracy, Senators Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is also damaging the president’s image.
“Joe Biden presented himself as the one capable of getting things done in Congress,” says Elliott Fullmer. However, these blockages, on necessary bills, generate little sympathy in addition to making him lose support on the left. Republicans don’t control Congress, and under the circumstances, progressives demand results. »
The prospect of a real stolen election
Last Saturday, in Florence, Arizona, Republican Donald Trump relaunched his alternate reality machine, in front of galvanized supporters, by calling for the umpteenth time for the “decertification” of the vote which put the state in the Democratic camp. 14 months ago.
By reiterating his unfounded accusations of electoral fraud, contradicted by several recounts of the vote, including a recount conducted with great fanfare by his own camp, the ousted former president thus confirms the importance of this southern state on which he has decided to bet for a possible return, in 2024, but also for a takeover of Congress by the Republicans next November.
This return, he bases it, in Arizona as in other battlefields, on the adoption of local laws aimed at limiting access to the ballot boxes for minorities or even at facilitating the contestation and cancellation of a poll which would be unfavorable to him.
The strategy hinges on promoting his “big lie,” but also on fierce Republican opposition to a Democratic bill to universally protect ballot access and depoliticize voting oversight.
It also involves promoting those close to it and allies in the administrative apparatus of several of these key states. Earlier this year, the Insurrection Index revealed that more than 1,000 Americans in public office were complicit in Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election result. They did so by supporting his the thesis of the theft of the elections or by participating in the attack on the Capitol.
Among them are 213 elected officials, 29 candidates for positions of power in the upcoming elections and 31 law enforcement officials.
And these drifts do not announce anything good for the president who, in November, is exposed to legislative elections traditionally disadvantageous for the party in power. “The structure of the Senate favors small states, which are more often Republican-leaning,” says Elliott Fullmer. Voting restrictions disproportionately affect Democrats. Consequence: as I often say, the Democrats must always win a lot to win a little. »
Joe Biden has indeed changed the tone in the management of the health crisis of the COVID-19.
He accelerated access to vaccination as soon as he came to power a year ago. But the appearance of a Delta variant, then of an Omicron, coupled with political resistance to sanitary measures, as well as ruptures in supply chains and inflation, above all risk placing it at the heart of another story.
Elements out of control
“A large part of his political fate now rests on elements beyond his control”, summarizes Jacob Grumbach, specialist in American politics at the University of Washington, naming the increase in cases of contamination or death linked to COVID- 19 and an increase in expenditure due to inflation that is difficult to control.
And that is the whole paradox.
“The priorities and the program of this presidency are accepted by a large proportion of Americans,” said Vincent Raynauld, professor of communications at Emerson College in Boston. Outlines work very well. But operationalizing the message remains difficult for Joe Biden who, unlike his predecessor, is not very good at taking credit for his best achievements. »
The local candidate, as he liked to portray himself during his campaign, would also benefit from “developing a more intimate relationship with the Americans”, believes for his part Elliott Fullmer. “He often goes long periods without addressing the country. And when he does, it’s often in the afternoon, when everyone is working. It must become a more visible and assertive presence on current issues. »
Mid-term elections
And in anticipation of the midterm elections, he should have several opportunities to do so to tout the positive effects of the budget plans he managed to push through and the signs of which should be visible in the daily lives of Americans in the coming months. , said Mr. Raynauld. “If I were him, I would spend more time simplifying the message and recalling my successes”, in order to ward off the fate of a first year of power that was not smooth and thus avoid that it does not becomes fatal to him.