The unemployment rate has returned to its record low before the pandemic in Quebec.
Greater than expected job creation in Canada and Quebec suddenly reduced Quebec’s unemployment rate from 5.6% to 4.5% in November, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This is the lowest level ever reached since as far back as official statistics allow us to go back, namely 1976. It is also exactly at the same point where Quebec was in February 2020 just before the COVID-19 pandemic. falls on him and only explodes the unemployment rate to 17.6% two months later.
This solid performance is due in particular to the net creation of 45,500 part-time jobs after a completely flat month of October (+300), as well as a slight decline in the working population (-5,600), also noted l Institute of Statistics of Quebec. Quebec now has a total of jobs (4.36 million) just above those before the crisis.
The entire job market in Canada was not left out. The addition of 154,000 jobs in November brings its total (19.3 million) a little higher than its pre-pandemic level, and helped reduce its unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6 %, just a few tenths of the level it posted in February 2020 (5.7%) before it then jumped to 13.7%.
The effect of PCRE?
Analysts admitted to being surprised by the strength of the November 7-13 survey results and found it difficult to explain.
Several have speculated that this could be, among other things, the result of the abolition, on October 23, of financial assistance programs for workers affected by the crisis, such as the Canadian Economic Recovery Benefit (PCRE).
The economist at the Mouvement Desjardins Joëlle Noreau was careful not to follow them on this ground. ” We do not know. The people at Statistics Canada, who have detailed knowledge of all this data, nowhere talk about it. I think it is safer to do the same, ”she explained in a telephone interview to To have to before adding that these figures still present a certain degree of volatility and that it should not be surprising that they will decline a little soon.
One thing is certain, Friday’s data contained a lot of good news. Particularly affected by the crisis, women aged 25 to 54 now have a record employment rate, while recent immigrants are doing much better than two years ago. Long-term unemployment is also on the decline, as is the rate of labor underutilization which adds up the unemployed, people who have worked less than half their usual hours and people who would have wanted a job. job, but have not looked for one. This rate was 11.3% before the crisis, rose to 36.7% in April 2020 and was only 12.4% last November.
However, some economic sectors continue to experience a more difficult takeoff. This is particularly the case for accommodation and catering, where employment is still 16.5% lower than it was before the crisis, but largely because we are not succeeding. to fill vacant positions.
Wages and inflation
All this will not go without exerting increasing pressure on employers in search of labor. As proof, hourly wages have increased on average by 5.2% in two years in Canada, when the effect of the crisis on the composition of the workforce is neutralized. The increase in remuneration would therefore offset the increase in the cost of living which amounted, in October, to 5.1% over two years, notes Statistics Canada.
However, not all workers are entitled to the same increases, the agency observes. Desperately looking to expand their workforce, employers have tended to give their new hires one and a half times the increases paid to their other employees. In the area of health and social assistance, it has even been ten times more.
More and more employers also seem to be re-evaluating their education requirements for certain positions downwards, even if it means offering compensatory training themselves.
Upcoming rate hike
All this good strength in the labor market, inflation and the economy will not fail to strengthen the Bank of Canada in its intention to reduce the degree of relaxation of its monetary policy, observed the analysts.
The first hike in its key rate, currently at its low point of 0.25%, is unlikely to come at its meeting scheduled for next week. After all, it will still be necessary to consider the impact of the flooding in British Columbia and the added uncertainty brought by the new Omicron variant.
The rate hike, however, could arrive earlier than April, as most experts predicted until then, said Benjamin Reitzes of the Bank of Montreal in a brief analysis. Maybe even as early as January, suggested his colleague from TD Bank, Sri Thanabalasingam.