(New York) Oil prices ended lower on Friday, driven by market uncertainty over the price cap calibration for Russian oil or OPEC’s decision in a few days.
The price of a barrel of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with January maturity, fell 2.12% to US$76.28. As for the barrel of Brent from the North Sea, also for delivery in January, it fell 2.08%, to close at US$83.63.
For Phil Flynn, of Price Futures Group, the black gold was first cooled by the adjustment of the weather forecasts in the United States, which are counting on a colder weather than initially expected.
Operators are also closely monitoring the situation in China, where the National Health Commission (NHC) recorded more than 32,000 new cases of COVID-19 in one day on Thursday, a record since the start of the pandemic. .
Lockdowns are in place in major Chinese cities, including the capital, Beijing. This will weigh heavily on economic activity and, by extension, on the demand for oil.
Craig Erlam of Oanda in a note to clients
Russian oil
The other point of attention of the market concerns the discussions around the capping of the price of Russian oil, a project promoted by the United States.
The discussions, carried out under the aegis of the G7 with the European Union and Australia, continued on Friday to try to stop an effective ceiling.
Once defined, this ceiling would make it possible to escape the European embargo on the insurance and transport of Russian oil provided that the latter is sold at the ceiling price or below.
According to several media, the range discussed was between US$65 and US$70 per barrel. “It’s more than expected, explained Phil Flynn, which could mean that the supply of oil will not decrease. »
The Urals, the benchmark Russian variety, posted an unfavorable spread of US$19 compared to the price of Brent on Friday, according to the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME), which placed it slightly below US$65. .
Capping Russian oil at a price above its course would have almost no influence on trade.
Pending the outcome of these discussions, traders were questioning the strategy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC+ agreement, which are due to meet on December 4.
For Commerzbank analysts, if the cartel were to have, in fact, reduced its production in November by only around one million barrels per day and not by two as announced in October, the publication of updated figures could nevertheless support lessons.
Moreover, after Saudi Arabia on Monday denied information from the wall street journal about a possible surprise increase in production at the end of the next OPEC+ meeting, operators are wondering.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to reduce their production” for the second meeting in a row, said Phil Flynn. “They want a floor [pour les prix] at US$70 and in some markets we’re already below that. »