Uncertain situation and international concerns after the resumption of fighting in Ethiopia

The international community was concerned Thursday about the resumption the day before, after five months of truce, of the fighting between the federal army and the Tigray rebels in the north of Ethiopia, where the situation on the ground was unclear.

Neither the Ethiopian government nor the rebel authorities – who accuse each other of having started the new clashes – gave information on whether or not the fighting continued on Thursday, and neither responded to questions from AFP .

In a statement dated Wednesday, the rebel authorities in Tigray simply said that government forces “failed” to “break [leurs] lines of defence.

The fighting, which broke out on Wednesday in areas of the Amhara and Afar regions around the southeastern tip of Tigray, does not appear to have spread.

But the international community is worried about a possible resumption of the conflict on a large scale and that the meager hopes aroused in June by the prospects for negotiations that have never materialized will be extinguished.

Since it erupted in November 2020, the conflict has claimed several thousand lives, displaced more than two million people and plunged hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians into near-famine conditions, according to the United Nations.

The truce concluded at the end of March notably allowed the gradual resumption of the delivery of humanitarian aid by road to Tigray, after a three-month interruption.

Calls for dialogue

“Reports of a resumption of conflict in northern Ethiopia are darkening the prospects for peace”, said the head of diplomacy of the European Union, Josep Borrell, calling on “all parties to deescalate the situation before it does not degenerate into a full-fledged war again”.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on the belligerents “to put a definitive end to the conflict”. The UN, African Union, Turkey, France and Britain have also called for dialogue.

On Thursday, the Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Demeke Mekonnen, repeated to diplomats that “the government is ready to defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Nation”, but also “determined to use means peaceful ways to end the conflict.

The government on Thursday again accused the rebels of diverting humanitarian aid for military purposes, after the World Food Program claimed they had forcibly seized 12 tankers stationed in Tigray the previous day containing 570,000 liters of fuel needed to distribute food.

Addis Ababa assures that “the looting of fuel” has “without any possible doubt served” the rebels to resume fighting on Wednesday and demands that the international community “provide guarantees that humanitarian aid reaches the intended beneficiaries” in Tigray.

The rebel authorities in Tigray denied any “theft”, claiming that they had only recovered, to operate the region’s health facilities without electricity, more than 600,000 liters of fuel which they had loaned “there a few months” to the WFP and which the latter had never returned.

“Direct Talks”

Since the end of June, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray rebels have repeatedly expressed their willingness to begin peace negotiations, but continue to disagree on their terms. And the past few days had accused each other of preparing for war.

The federal government wants immediate talks without preconditions, under the aegis of the African Union (AU). The rebels demanded that the electricity, telecommunications and banking services of which Tigray is deprived first be restored, and rejected the mediation of the High Representative of the AU, Olusegun Obasanjo.

In a letter published on Wednesday, the leader of the rebel authorities in Tigray, Debretsion Gebremichael, for the first time acknowledged that “two rounds of direct discussions” had taken place with civilian and military officials of the Ethiopian government and accused the latter of not honoring commitments made at that time.

“While one side draws a roadmap for peace, the other side declares war. While the government is exploring all options to consolidate the truce, the Tigrayan rebels are “actively working towards its end,” said the committee charged by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with preparing negotiations.

The war began when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent the army to Tigray to dislodge regional authorities, accusing them of attacking military bases after months of contesting his authority.

After initially retreating, the Tigrayan rebels regained control of most of the region in a mid-2021 counteroffensive, during which they entered Amhara and Afar.

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