According to Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics, the Ukrainians are wary of the announcement made by Russia on Wednesday November 9 to withdraw its troops from the city of Kherson. The teacher at the University of Montpellier estimates on franceinfo that the Ukrainians fear “a trick” and therefore remain “very cautious about this withdrawal”.
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The city of Kherson, conquered in March 2022 by Russian troops, had been Moscow’s main war prize since the start of the conflict. Carole Grimaud also talks about taking “strategic” for Russia which “was to represent the bridgehead to conquer Mikolaiv, to conquer Odessa”. The withdrawal of troops “marks a blow in this objective”.
franceinfo: This announcement of the withdrawal from Kherson is very important since the city represented a strong symbol for Russia. In your opinion, is this a bluff or a real retreat?
Carole Grimaud: The Ukrainian side is reserved on this decision. She suspects a feint on the part of the Russians to hide the Russian troops who would have remained in the city, who would have put on civilian clothes, who would have posted themselves on the roofs ready for an urban war.
“It is a strategy that has been seen in several wars that the Russians have waged, such as in Syria for example.”
Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopoliticsat franceinfo
The Ukrainians understand this and think it can be a trick, so they are very cautious about this withdrawal. They scrutinize the images closely to see if it is indeed effective.
There were some signs in recent days, could we expect this announcement?
It was not really expected even if indeed announcements had been made in this direction by the generals. So it’s a surprise because the soldiers certainly didn’t expect it. On the other hand, the signs were there: the flags had disappeared, there had been the evacuation of civilians, thefts also committed in abandoned houses, etc. All this showed that the soldiers were preparing to leave the field.
Could there be fear on Moscow’s side that the Ukrainian offensive would go as far as Crimea, which would explain this withdrawal to protect access to that region?
Kherson was indeed strategic for Russia. It was to represent the bridgehead to conquer Mikolaiv, to conquer Odessa, which the Russians failed to do after these eight months of war. The withdrawal of Kherson marks a blow in this objective. In the meantime, the announcements in the Russian media do not show a defeat at all but rather a break in a continuity of this war.