“It is possible that the worst is ahead of us.” The French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, does not hide his concern, on the eighth day of the war in Ukraine, Thursday March 3. For the first time, the Russian army took control of a major Ukrainian city, Kherson, and pounded several others, including the capital Kiev and the country’s second city, Kharkiv. “We can fear a siege logic”warned the head of French diplomacy on France 2, calling for “impose a ceasefire”.
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On the Russian side, Vladimir Putin reiterated his intention to continue “without compromise” his offensive against “nationalists” in Ukraine, while dRusso-Ukrainian negotiations were to resume on Thursday afternoon at the Polish-Belarusian border. After a week of fighting, what is the state of the balance of power? What are the prospects? Franceinfo interviewed Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, associate researcher at the Thomas-More Institute and specialist in security issues in Europe.
Franceinfo: Jean-Yves Le Drian says he fears “a logic of siege” from the Russian army. How to define this strategy?
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier: Until now, Russia was in a strategy of Blitzkrieg, a war of movement. The Russian army believed that the Ukrainian state would quickly collapse with the joining of its army, in the north, which marched towards Kiev, the deployment of Spetsnaz (Russian infiltrated special forces) and strikes on Ukrainian military and economic capabilities. Eventually, Ukrainian forces proved more resilient.
The Russian army is now considering the siege of a certain number of cities: Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol. If the capital falls into the hands of the Russians, the whole politico-military leadership of Ukraine will collapse. The chain of command would break down and Ukraine could become a battleground with armed civilian-led insurgencies against Russian forces. One can then imagine that the conflict gets bogged down and turns into a war of position, as was the case in Syria, in Aleppo.
After a week of war, what is the state of the balance of power and the fighting?
The overall balance of power is in favor of Russia, but the war only started eight days ago. The Ukrainian army is more pugnacious than Russia seemed to think, there were actions against Russian lines of communication. Despite the bombardments, the Ukrainian Air Force was not totally eliminated. It also seems that there was a coordination problem between the Russian Air Force and the Russian Army, which could explain the slowness of the convoy of military tanks heading towards Kiev.
But if in the north, the Russian army seems to have more difficulty in advancing, in the south, it is progressing. The Russian military is marching towards the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, the city of Mariupol is besieged, and maybe they will go to Odessa, then to Moldova.
“The difficulties encountered by the Russian army in the north should not overshadow the advances in the south.”
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, specialist in European security issuesat franceinfo
If the Russian army is on the doorstep of Moldova, it could rekindle the frozen conflict of the Transnistria, which Moscow has used as leverage for years to prevent Moldova from turning west. Beyond that there is also the entire Black Sea basin, Georgia and the southern Caucasus.
Moreover, Russia still has military reserves. Vladimir Putin has made an agreement with China to strip its troops from Siberia and redeploy them to Ukraine. It is currently estimated that there are 150 combined arms battle groups on the ground, which include cars, battalions, mechanized infantry, artillery, and 500 combat aircraft. But according to the Pentagon, only 75 are active.
What could happen if Russia invaded a NATO member country?
It would no longer be a single war but the beginning of a great war between Russia and the West. With the game of alliances, we would change scale. The United States would be involved. Most countries in the European Union too. Today, Westerners can no longer pretend and declare that there is just a problem of dialogue with Russia. This is the end of a world.
“If the Russian army takes control of Ukraine, we can no longer stop it. Or, yes, but at what price? What happens in Ukraine is decisive for the West.”
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenierat franceinfo
I’m not sure the talks change anything. The Russians demand the capitulation of the Ukrainian army, that Ukraine renounce its sovereignty, which is unacceptable for the Ukrainians. If the latter consider themselves strong enough to stay at war, I don’t see why any of the parties would give in. Local and temporal ceasefires could be negotiated, but the decision does not seem militarily obvious. The war would settle down over time.