Ukrainian counter-offensive | The end of the war is not for tomorrow

In the final weeks of summer 2022, six months after the start of the invasion, Ukrainian forces are pushing back against the Russian adversary in the regions of Kharviv (northeast) and the neighboring oblasts of Mykolayev and Kherson (south). . The territory taken over is vast. In the spring of 2023, optimism therefore reigns when it comes to a new Ukrainian counter-offensive. And yet.

However, things are not happening the same way as in 2022. No more breakthroughs and quick wins. Hello, trench warfare. A grinding war (grinding) of the territory. Each square kilometer taken back by the Ukrainians is at the cost of long efforts. Some make comparisons with the stalemate of the First World War.

That said, Ukraine is moving forward. Slowly, of course, but she is making progress. Adding up the winnings. What the Russian forces cannot claim. On the other hand, they have built a formidable series of defensive lines that are difficult to penetrate.

“Progress is constant, but it is slow,” summarizes Maria Popova, associate professor at the Jean-Monnet chair at McGill University.

“On the Russian side, we have also lost the striking force of the Wagner group,” notes Frédéric Mérand, director of the political science department at the University of Montreal. It’s still them [Wagner] who had conquered the city of Bakhmut [au nord de Donetsk]. They were the most reckless and determined. »

Journalist at Financial Times based in Ukraine since 2010, Christopher Miller makes a similar analysis. Contacted in Kyiv, he emphasizes that the delays in launching the counter-offensive allowed the Russians to better prepare.

As a result, morale on the Ukrainian side is lower than in the spring. But Ukrainians are showing resilience. “They thought that at this time of year they would be in Tokmak or Melitopol and that the battlefield would have changed a lot. Now the wish is to go to Tokmak, a strategic town where they would be in a much better position for a future counter-offensive,” continues Mr. Miller.

Break through enemy lines

All analysts agree that it is the first line of defense that is the most difficult to penetrate. This is solidly made up of minefields, dragon’s teeth, trenches and ditches, all watered by Russian artillery.

Additionally, Ukrainian ground forces have no air cover. This explains why we are moving slowly and cautiously. “The state does not push the army to do too much because it knows how difficult it is on the ground,” says Serhii Nazarov, a Ukrainian filmmaker contacted by The Press in the Odessa region. People know that it will take time, but that things will probably move faster when the lines of defense are broken. »

According to Dominique Arel, chair of Ukrainian studies at the University of Ottawa, it is not the American Abrams tanks, whose delivery is beginning in Ukraine, which will serve as the spearhead of the attack.

“They will help strengthen Ukrainian capacity, but will not be used to make breakthroughs because Ukraine does not have control of the skies,” he said.

This first line, however, has been breached in a few places, with a significant price to pay. “The counter-offensive left a lot of heavy equipment on the ground and a high number of lives. We do not know the exact figures, because Ukraine withholds this information. But it is clear that hundreds, if not thousands, of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or injured,” says Christopher Miller, who recently launched a book, The War Came to Usdedicated to this war.

Furthermore, far from the front, a significant change occurred at the beginning of October with the arrival of American long-range ATACMS missiles, believes Dominique Arel.

“These American missiles are more efficient than the British and French missiles that Ukraine was already using,” says the University of Ottawa professor. First, because they are fired from the ground instead of the air. So there is no risk of losing planes. In addition, these missiles are loaded with cluster munitions which disperse on the ground. This does a lot of damage. »

A recent Ukrainian attack on a Russian military airport is said to have destroyed around twenty aircraft.

Mr. Arel recalls that cluster munitions are banned by a treaty signed by several countries, but that neither Russia nor Ukraine has signed this document.

Finally, he adds, Russia has lost the great advantage in shells in stock, of the order of 10 to 1, that it had over Ukraine since the start of the war. “The Russians have wasted their stocks so much that they are facing an artillery deficit,” he says.

To resupply, Russia turned to North Korea, which began sending it shells. In fact, the expected break on the front in the coming months should allow the two belligerents to resupply with weapons from their allies. Another indicator that the war will be long.