Sunday, April 9, the New York Times released a Feb. 28 Pentagon memo that Ukraine’s air defense is in bad shape. At the rate it uses its surface-to-air batteries (notably the medium-to-long range Soviet-era S-300s and Buks) to protect itself from Russian drone and missile attacks, it will have exhausted all of its stockpiles of weapons. here on May 3rd at the latest.
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Without a massive influx of new munitions, it will no longer be able to maintain control of its airspace. Moscow will therefore have a free field to send its fighter planes, its bombers. And maybe change the course of the war.
A bounty on Russian soldiers who target NATO tanks
This scenario, as we know, worries the Americans, even if equipment begins to arrive in Kiev in anticipation of its offensive, planned in the coming weeks: tanks, combat vehicles, but also anti-aircraft defense systems, including the famous Patriot missiles on which several dozen Ukrainian soldiers are completing their training.
We learn other things in these documents: among other things that the Wagner group is trying to buy arms from Turkey. That Ukraine is in the process of setting up twelve brigades (nearly 50,000 men in total), nine of which are trained and equipped by the United States.
Or again, still depending on the New York Times, that Russia would have promised a bonus to soldiers who manage to damage or destroy tanks provided by NATO. This kind of bonus makes “part of a larger set of initiatives aimed at boosting the morale of the troops“, “videos of destroyed tanks would also be widely disseminated to reassure them of their ability to defeat this new armament”.
Questionable files
While some files are deemed authentic, others have been tampered with. In particular to minimize Russian losses. As Yaroslav Trofimov, of the wall street journalor Aric Toler, of Bellingcat, the American estimate of 43,500 dead in the ranks of the Russian army is reduced to 17,500, while 17,500 Ukrainian dead have become 71,500 dead. Likewise, Russian vehicle losses fell from 6,004 to 600.
They therefore remain subject to caution and could be part of a disinformation operation led by Russia. This “ultra-sensitive” information in any case puts the world of intelligence in all its states. After the Pentagon, the Ministry of Justice opened an investigation on Saturday April 8.
The most important case since WikiLeaks
At this point, several hypotheses remain under consideration, ranging from a disgruntled employee to a state willing to harm the national security interests of the United States. The case is already considered one of the most serious breaches of national security since the WikiLeaks, ten years ago.
If the United States was able to leak this information, its allies (first and foremost Ukraine) will undoubtedly hesitate to entrust their intelligence to them. As for the sources that the American services use, in particular in Russia, they could also be threatened.
Even France is targeted: certain documents (which do not come from the French army) attest that French soldiers are engaged in Ukraine. Requested by the newspaper The worldSaturday, the ministry of the armies denied.