Ukraine’s accession to the EU, financial aid for kyiv… The challenges of the new European summit under high tension in Brussels

The last European summit of 2023 opens in Brussels on Thursday. At the heart of the discussions, the situation of Ukraine: its accession to the European Union and the financial support of the 27.

In Brussels, Thursday December 14, a high-tension European summit opens. The 27 leaders must notably decide on the opening of negotiations for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and on macro-financial aid of 50 billion euros over 4 years to support kyiv.

The issue is firstly political: will the Europeans even symbolically open the door of their club to Ukraine? The commission believes that kyiv has made the necessary reforms in very specific areas – independence of justice and the media, fight against money laundering – and that the country can therefore take the next step towards integration: the opening of negotiations on membership. A simple step because it will still take many years to get there but it is now up to the capitals to decide.

Another issue of the summit, financial: the 27 must agree on an extension of their multi-annual budget to finance their migration policy, strategic autonomy but also aid to Ukraine. This provisional budget that they must review runs until 2027. The needs for kyiv are estimated at 50 billion euros over 4 years.

“Game and set” for Putin

If these two decisions are eagerly awaited by President Zelensky, Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, threatens to collapse the hitherto flawless unity of Europeans at the very moment when Ukraine undoubtedly needs it the most. Difficult situation on the ground, American aid which is no longer self-evident: if the Europeans are not there, the political signal will be disastrous. A failure is “game and set” for Putin, whispers a European source. Is Orban, accustomed to arm wrestling in Brussels, determined to block everything? Or is he bargaining for his support in exchange for the release of funds frozen by the Commission for breaching the rule of law?

On Wednesday, December 13, it released a third, or ten billion out of the 30 billion frozen, due, it is said, to progress considered notable in terms of the independence of justice. But there remains total uncertainty over the position that the Hungarian leader close to Vladimir Putin will adopt.

Regarding the continuation of the accession process, finding a compromise promises to be difficult on financial aid, but there is no question of abandoning Ukraine. “In the event of a blockage on the budget extension, we will find a solution at 26”, estimates a source at the heart of the negotiations. This last peak of the year therefore promises to be difficult and could last.