The hope has just been tempered in a declaration: “Can we today open an accession procedure with a country at war? I do not believe that. Should we close the door and say never? It would be unfair,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.
Gathered in Versailles, France, the leaders of the 27 member countries on Thursday rejected out of hand Ukraine’s request for rapid membership of the European Union. A request to this effect was presented by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, the day after the invasion of his country by Russia.
On Wednesday, on Twitter, the Head of State who had become a warlord despite himself was delighted with a conversation with the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to whom he reiterated the importance of this accession, “the key for Ukraine”, he mentioned.
But if Monday, the procedure for the examination of this request was officially launched by the French presidency of the Council of the EU, in the circumstances, the announcement was obviously much more symbolic than pragmatic.
“We must not delude ourselves, summarizes at the other end of the videoconference the specialist in international law Olivier Delas, holder of the Jean Monnet Chair in European integration at Laval University. There is a diplomatic and political effect sought in this announcement”, which also coupled Ukraine’s request with that of Georgia and Moldova, two other states which also aspire to join the European Union. “These three countries are very fearful of Russian attacks, now with good reason,” he continues. There is therefore in these demands the affirmation of a clear desire for rapprochement with the West, while Russia seeks by all means to attract them towards it, and this also sends an equally clear political message to Vladimir Putin. about the West’s determination not to let it happen.
A long process
To the request for membership “without delay” demanded by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, however opposed on Thursday another reality: “there is no fast procedure” to bring a country into the circle of EU members. The procedure is long in time and complex in its mechanics. But, “we want to work intensively with Ukraine”, he nevertheless assured.
Ukraine already has an association agreement with the European Union, which entered into force in 2017 after being adopted by President Petro Poroshenko in 2014. This rapprochement had also set fire to the powder between the former -Soviet republic and Russia and partly led to the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Moscow and the start of the Donbass war.
But the country, which is currently suffering the violence of an unjustified war, is still far from a seat within the European Union, and this, because of the conditions that it will have to meet before integrating this organization. international.
“It’s not something that can be done in a snap,” says Mr. Delas. It takes years”, to prepare for the integration of a common market and a political framework currently shared by 27 member countries.
The new members must, among other things, have “stable institutions guaranteeing democracy”, be “states of law”, but also have the “capacity to cope with market forces and competitive pressure within the Union and subscribe to “the objectives of political union” in terms of the economy and monetary policy, according to the list of conditions established by the Copenhagen European Council in 1993.
However, in peacetime, Ukraine was already far from meeting these criteria. The country has a justice system inherited from the Soviet era and whose few ongoing reforms have still not succeeded in transforming it to bring it into line with the country’s European aspirations. A nation which, moreover, was still last year in third place among the most corrupt countries in Europe, behind Russia and Azerbaijan, according to the latest report from Transparency International. An advance, however, compared to 2018, where Ukraine was in second position.
And the war that is being played out on its territory is bound to weaken its ability to respond favorably, in the near future, to the requirements for entry into the European Union.
“A real disaster”
On Thursday, the Ukrainian President’s economic adviser, Oleg Ustenko, estimated the damage caused by the Russians since the start of the invasion at $100 billion, while emphasizing that Ukraine was experiencing “a real disaster”, much “more worse than any of us could have imagined”. Half of Ukrainian companies have gone out of business, he added in an online chat with the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a US think tank. And those that have not closed their doors are not running at 100% capacity.
What is more, Vladimir Putin’s thinly veiled strategy is to bring down the pro-European power of Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev to replace it with an administration in the pay of Russia. He also seeks to weaken the country – as Stalin had done almost 90 years earlier with the Holodomor, the great famine – in order to better enslave and control it afterwards.
“If Ukraine sinks into a long-term conflict, it will make it increasingly difficult to consider joining the European Union, which certainly cannot absorb a country at war,” said Mr. Delas. Things could also get more complicated, if the Russian advance were to send the Zelensky government into exile. »
Under the circumstances, Ukraine still dreams of quickly obtaining the status of candidate country for membership, which would technically place it on the threshold of the European Union. Like Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Albania and North Macedonia. “It is a status which allows access to aid programs to prepare for the transition, says the professor of international law, but which does not grant the privileges of the Member States”, including the support of all, when the is attacked militarily.
If Ukraine sinks into a protracted conflict, it will make it increasingly difficult to consider joining the European Union, which certainly cannot absorb a country at war.
A provision, summarized by article 42 paragraph 7 of the Treaty of the European Union, certainly not unknown to Volodymyr Zelensky who, under enemy bombing, wanted to see it as a “key” to get out of this conflict. A key which, however, will still have to remain in a closed door.
With Agence France-Presse