Ukraine | The Euro-Atlantic community put to the test

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the subject of near-universal international condemnation; many countries imposed sanctions on Russia and provided humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.

The invasion created, in effect, the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. According to information published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), nearly 6 million Ukrainians, having fled their country since the start of the Russian invasion, are officially listed throughout Europe.

Red Cross teams traveled to Ukraine and neighboring countries to provide essential humanitarian aid to those affected (including on the borders of Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania and Slovakia ).

Since the start of the Russian aggression, the European Union (EU) has also been united and strong and provides humanitarian, political, financial and military support to Ukraine; the vast majority of EU members agreeing to impose sanctions on Russia, Hungary apart.

Lastly, it coordinates with its partners and allies within the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Group of Seven (G7).

In addition, on several occasions, the European Council condemned the indiscriminate attacks perpetrated by Russia against civilians and civilian infrastructure and reaffirmed that international humanitarian law must be respected.

Fissured political unity

However, after five months of war in Ukraine, one thing is clear: the arms deliveries promised to Ukraine unfortunately seem to be cracking the hard-won political unity of liberal democracies. The cohesion and solidarity of the Euro-Atlantic community appear clearly put to the test by the stalemate of the war in Ukraine.

Not all states behave with the diligence and resolution expected in this sensitive area, contrary to what happened when the first economic sanctions were adopted against the state nomenklatura poutinian.

Will the Russo-Ukrainian war of attrition therefore ultimately get the better of the unity of the Euro-Atlantic community, thus allowing Russia to annex the territories conquered in Ukraine?

At the head of the pack are the United States, Canada and Great Britain (the contribution of these three States is exceptional), followed by the Baltic States and those of Central Europe, in particular Poland.

France and Germany are situated between these two groups of States which provide a very modest quantity of weapons compared to their available stock.

Is it the fear of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine or a possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia which imposes strategic restraint on these two States? The question still remains.

It is in this context that we must also understand the comments of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, which appeared in the pages of the Figaro of July 18: “This is a resistance test for our societies”, he declared after a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels.

That said, the impact of Russian economic sanctions and their consequences on the economies of the Euro-Atlantic community are already being fully felt: the EU has asked these members to reduce gas consumption by 15% between 1^er August 2022 and March 31, 2023. After a drastic drop in gas flows (only 20% of the ordinary level), announced by Russia from July 27, it appears that EU members are preparing for the management of a difficult energy crisis. This will inevitably have a significant impact on gas exports to countries such as Germany, France, Austria and the Czech Republic.

In the longer term, the scarcity of Russian gas and oil, exploited by the Kremlin last winter in Europe, could therefore further undermine the cohesion and solidarity of the Euro-Atlantic community. At a higher level, this situation could ultimately reduce arms deliveries to Ukraine, contributing to increasing harmful pressure on Ukrainian political authorities, limiting their room for maneuver, forcing them to sign a disadvantageous peace treaty with Russia. .

The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the official policies or positions of Public Safety Canada or the Canadian government.