Ukraine strikes Russia in Africa

Ukraine helped Malian rebels ambush Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group in late July. More than 80 Russians died in the operation. The conflict in Eastern Europe risks destabilizing West Africa, a British political scientist fears.

How did Ukraine help Malian rebels ambush the Russians?

The ambush took place on July 27 in Tin Zaouatine, in northern Mali. It was carried out by Tuareg separatists, Berbers from the Sahara, killing 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers.

Two days later, a Ukrainian military spokesman said the Tuaregs had received “necessary information, not just information” from Ukraine to mount their attack, according to the BBC, which cited instructors who had given the Tuaregs training on drones.

“Whatever Ukrainian involvement, it is clear that this is an African development of the conflict in Eastern Europe,” said Jaynisha Patel, a South African-born political scientist at the Tony Blair Institute in London, who last year published an analysis of the Wagner Group’s African activities in the journal Foreign Policy.

Ambush is a “humiliation” for Russia, says M^me Patel: “It looks like they’ve lost a commander.”

Is this an isolated intervention by Ukraine?

“Ukraine is trying to play a bigger role in Africa,” says M^me Patel: There is a plan to increase the number of embassies from 6 to 20 and increase trade. And Ukraine has been helping the Sudanese army fight the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are supported by the Wagner group.

THE Guardian reported this winter that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the head of the Sudanese army in Ireland in September.

At the end of July, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was on a tour of East Africa.

What is the Ukrainian goal in Africa? There is a desire to counter Russia on all battlefields, but also to have diplomatic support in the United Nations (UN) and opportunities for its economy, says M^me Patel.

What is the reaction of other African countries?

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has formally protested Ukraine’s intervention in Mali, notes M^me Patel.

“ECOWAS wants to stabilize the region and external interventions are detrimental to this objective. In addition, it is an exacerbation of ethnic tensions.”

What is the Russian goal in Africa?

Initially, it was an attempt to discredit the West. “Russia has been opportunistic and has increased its power in West Africa, taking advantage of a climate that is increasingly hostile to the West,” says M^me Patel.

Now, new advantages for Russia are emerging. “In the Central African Republic, the Wagner Group’s support for the government has allowed it to take control of some mines. So there is increased access to some natural resources.”

Instability in Mali also has an impact on migration to Europe, a source of division for the West, according to M^me Patel.

In the past year, Russia has also tried to encourage migration flows to Europe by transporting citizens from the Middle East and Africa to the Belarus-Poland border.

“In both cases, these are sources of internal tensions for the West,” says M.^me Patel: Migration flows to Europe are fueling the popularity of far-right parties, which are sometimes sympathetic to Russian interests.

Russia’s involvement in Africa also has the benefit of increasing its support at the UN. In 2023, in a majority vote at the UN condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Eritrea and Mali were among the seven votes against, while many African countries, including the Central African Republic, were among the 32 abstentions.

What should the West do in the face of this widening of the conflict in Ukraine to Africa?

“We must learn from the mistakes of the past and avoid paternalism,” says M.^me Patel: There is a reassessment in the United States, Great Britain and Canada of relations with Africa, to have a partnership that is more beneficial for African countries. We can talk about an increase in development aid, for example.

What were the mistakes of the past? M^me Patel prefers not to answer since his employer is an institute founded by a former British prime minister.

“There is no denying that there is a growing anti-Western sentiment in Africa,” she said. “Russia is very adept at whipping up that sentiment.”