Ukraine needs “men, materials, ammunition” and “strategy”, observes a former colonel

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, traveling to Washington, then Europe, is struggling to garner new financial support.

Ukraine needs “men, materials and ammunition” and of “strategy”, observed Peer De Jong, vice-president of the Themiis institute and former colonel of the marine troops, on franceinfo Thursday December 14, while Western aid, essential to Ukraine to wage its war against Russia, is not arriving , despite the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington, United States.

franceinfo: From a military point of view, can we say that Ukraine is losing the war ?

Peer De Jong: It’s a little too fast. The counter-offensive stopped about a month ago. We cannot assume that Ukraine will lose the war abruptly. But we clearly see, and Volodymyr Zelensky realized this, that there are red flashing lights in all areas, in the economic, military or political domain. And so, obviously, there is a concern that is starting to appear within the Ukrainian government.

Is the Ukrainian army running out of ammunition?

The Ukrainian army lacks ammunition and equipment, but it also lacks strategy. And that’s also the heart of the matter. The counter-offensive failed, it stopped. Nothing concrete is happening on the ground anymore. This strategic failure that it had by attacking three sites at the same time meant that it consumed men, equipment and ammunition. Today, it has needs in these three areas, obviously.

In Brussels, the European Union (EU) will discuss a possible envelope of 50 billion euros. If Ukraine wants to win this war, does it necessarily need an agreement from the 27 EU countries?

It is vital. If Europe does not agree to continue its efforts for the benefit of Ukraine, the whole world will ask questions, first and foremost the Americans, who today are extremely reluctant to finance this war.

Can we say that if we do not vote in the coming days for this 50 billion aid to Ukraine, we will ultimately condemn the country to defeat?

50 billion euros is not a considerable sum, especially since it is spread over four years, or 12.5 billion euros per year. So, we are not going to consider it decisive, but it is extremely political. This is the second time, after the Republicans last week in Congress, that an international community has refused or at least discussed its aid to Ukraine. For two years, the massive aid has always been massive, without discussion. Today, we are getting into the tough stuff, because there is a European debate. We are talking about the Hungarians, but also the Netherlands, the Poles… We can clearly see that there is a whole series of problems emerging. And why ? Because the war is hard: hard on the ground of course, but also hard in Europe, because the European Union is having great difficulty today in financing this conflict which seems to be endless.

When the 27 will meet at a summit in Brussels, Vladimir Putin will hold his traditional press conference in front of hundreds of journalists and officials. Will he use it as a platform to claim his recent military advances?

We can clearly see that today there is a sort of counterpart to Ukrainian weakness. Last week, Vladimir Putin was in the United Arab Emirates, he was in Saudi Arabia. This is the first time he has left the country in two years. It is rather on a bottom-up model. His army is on the offensive, advancing on the three fronts of eastern Ukraine. The second point is that the Russian economy has transformed drastically; we are talking about 20% of GDP being devoted to defense affairs. It’s working and it’s not going to stop. Third point, Russian public opinion is completely behind Putin, around 80% according to polls. He is therefore on a speech which is much more promising for Russia than last year.