As kitsch and popular as it was in its infancy, Eurovision has often ventured onto the front line of the geopolitical tensions agitating the Old Continent. The 2022 edition is a tragic case study, with the exclusion of Russia and the status of ultra favorite of Ukraine.
the pipe Stefania of the Kalush Orchestra, a lullaby mixing rap and traditional music, will defend the colors of Ukraine at the European Eurovision Song Contest, the final of which will take place on May 14 in Turin, Italy. “JI will always find my way home, even if all the roads are destroyed”, says the title. Two weeks before the big night, Ukraine has a 42% chance of winning, far ahead of the Italian duo Mahmood and Blanco (14%) and the Swedish Cornelia Jakobs (10%), according to the eurovisionworld.com site, which aggregates the major online betting sites. United Kingdom, Spain, Poland, Greece, Norway, Netherlands and Australia complete the top 10. France, represented by the Breton group Alvan and Ahez, is given in 13th position.
The war in Ukraine will hang heavily over the event but “it’s not new“, reminds AFP the historian Dean Vuletic, researcher at the University of Vienna and author of works on the geopolitics of Eurovision. In 1975, Greece boycotted the competition to protest against the invasion of Cyprus by Turkey, then in 1992, the wars following the dislocation of Yugoslavia invite themselves on stage.In 2004, Ukraine wins the competition and the following year, after the “Orange Revolution”, it presents itself with a song very political but which is finally accepted.
Finally last year, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) excluded Belarus on the grounds that the lyrics of its song attacked head-on the democratic opposition to pro-Russian President Alexander Lukashenko. Italian rock band Måneskin won the title.
While Ukraine is expected to receive a large number of sympathy votes, its victory is not assured. “Musically, the Ukrainian contribution is solid but there are others. The public will surely show strong support for Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean they will win. In 1993, Bosnia and Croatia did not finish very high“while these countries were under fire from Serbian troops, notes Dean Vuletic.
Slobodan Todorovic, editor-in-chief of Eurovision fan site Evrovizija.rs in Serbia, believes that Eurovision shouldn’t be just a political arena: “A victory for Ukraine [pour des raisons politiques] would cast a shadow over Eurovision and the values it stands for, neutrality, independence of politics, respect and promotion of diversity“.
The sympathy capital of Ukrainians in Europe is enormous, recognizes Benoît Blaszczyk, secretary of France-Eurofans, the French branch of the General Organization of Eurovision Fans (OGAE). “But whatever happens they have a good song, and every year Ukraine, avant-garde, is very watched”he tempers.
Should we rely on past votes to know which country votes for which others? Of course there are “blocks” in the viewers’ vote: in the infancy of Eurovision, the French-speaking countries (France, Belgium, Switzerland, Luxembourg) voted together and won almost everything. The Nordic bloc, voting as one man, emerged through the next, then “sub-blocks“appeared in Central and Eastern Europe.”But these blocks were never decisive in choosing the winner“, notes Dean Vuletic.
And indeed the list of winners of the last twenty years shows that the game is never over: Turkey (2003), Ukraine (2004), Russia (2008), Azerbaijan (2011) or Israel (2018) came to beat the pawn to the queen nations (Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, United Kingdom). No less than 4,400 Eurovision fans affiliated with the OGAE voted to establish their ranking before the Turin event: Ukraine only finished 11th. Sweden is given (still) victorious, ahead of Italy and Spain.
The Ukrainian fans of the OGAE, for their part, placed Poland (the first host country for Ukrainian refugees) in the lead, then Spain, France, Norway and Sweden. Russian fans, for their part, gave the maximum score (the famous 12 points) to the very Russophile Serbia, followed by Lithuania (where there is a large Russian-speaking community), Spain and Latvia (also a former Soviet republic ).
And anyway Ukraine does not need to win the contest to win. “The simple fact of being represented on stage, of having been able to leave their country, of receiving so much support, with in addition the exclusion of Russia, is already a victory for the Ukrainians“, notes Dean Vuletic.