Ukraine must receive the green light from European leaders for the country’s future membership of the European Union. There is even consensus among the 27 (which, at the start, was not won). This eagerness to respond to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request, however, looks more like a choice of emotion than of reason.
No one disputes the fact that – since 2014 – the Ukrainians have been fighting with incredible courage against Russia to preserve their sovereignty. Let them defend values which are European values. Reaching out to kyiv (as indeed to Moldova) is a necessary and obvious gesture of solidarity. But if the 44 million Ukrainians one day integrate the Union, they will profoundly transform it, and we must measure the consequences.
This membership is not for now. Not before ten years at best, even 15 or 20 years. By way of comparison, Serbia, which submitted its application in 2009, had to wait until 2012 before obtaining candidate status and 2013 for negotiations to be launched.
The decision taken in Brussels on June 23 has symbolic value. It is a first step, but that does not mean that the whole process will be accelerated.
Especially since Ukraine still has a lot of progress to make. According to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, she has already adopted “approximately 70% of European rules, norms and standards” : “a very solid presidential and parliamentary democracy”, “a public administration that works very well and that made it possible for the country to function during this war”a successful decentralization reform and “a fully functioning market economy”.
But on the independence of justice or corruption, other fundamental reforms will be needed. Kyiv will scommit to respect Articles 49 and 2 of the Treaty on European Unionto apply the Lisbon Treaty and the Copenhagen criteria, which are based on the imperatives of political and economic stability. Of course, the war changed the situation, but we must not forget that before the conflict, Ukraine was still a poor country. With a per capita income of around 3,000 euros per year, four times less than in Romania, which is already the poorest country in the Union.
Four Balkan countries in the queue
If Europe says “yes“to Ukraine, will she necessarily have to say”yes” to others who aspire to the European dream? Today five countries are officially candidates for membership. These are Turkey and four Western Balkan states: Montenegro, Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia. Turkey is a special case: his application file was opened in 1999, 23 years ago, but the applications are at a standstill and the country has never seemed so far from Europe…
All the others are getting impatient and it seems complicated to close the door in their face. Why say no to Albania, which for eight years has undertaken profound reforms? Why say no to Macedonia which is already part of NATO? This is what will be discussed this Thursday, June 23 in Brussels. This is to avoid frustration and weariness. With a risk in sight, brandished by several capitals: enlarging the union could lead to a dilution of the European project, at a time when the 27 are realizing that to be effective, stronger, it is better to tighten up rather than to broaden.
Ukraine’s European integration may have an impact for France: Europe’s center of gravity will shift to the east. This is not an ideal configuration, neither for France nor for Germany, which still give the “la” on the European scene. Today when Paris and Berlin oppose certain decisions, it is complicated to get them adopted. Tomorrow, when the qualified majority will apply more and more often, the Franco-German couple risks losing its influence.