“Fear of being let go”: Ukraine, whose counter-offensive against the Russians did not give the expected results, is caught in headwinds with American aid in question and European unity faltering on the approach of a decisive European Council next week.
Illustration of the ambient excitement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was due to speak virtually on Tuesday before the American Congress to try to unlock a new financial package that is as much debated as it is crucial for his country at war. An intervention ultimately canceled at the last minute, without giving a reason.
French President Emmanuel Macron will receive Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday at the Élysée, who seems to want to obstruct support for kyiv.
Mr. Orban called for the postponement of two key decisions for Ukraine which must be submitted to a vote by European Union member countries: one relating to budgetary support of 50 billion euros (CA$73 billion). , the other on the opening of negotiations for accession to the EU.
The major Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in June largely failed to liberate the occupied territories in the East and South, raising questions about the continuation of massive Western aid.
And if gains have been recorded in the Black Sea, allowing kyiv to export several tonnes of agricultural products, the military situation on the land front now seems frozen, with no real tactical solution in sight in the short term. kyiv, however, assures that it can win if Western military aid continues.
“Managing Zelensky”
However, “even under continuous infusion from the West, Ukraine lacks men, where Russia does not have this problem”, underlines to AFP a senior European military official stationed at NATO, noting that “in the training cycles (provided by NATO to Ukrainian soldiers, Editor’s note), it is older, less experienced people who now present themselves”.
“We must now manage Zelensky, bring him back from his somewhat die-hard posture. No one is saying that officially, but I think that’s a bit of what is being prepared,” comments this NATO source.
From a French diplomatic source, efforts are being made to attenuate these comments by emphasizing that Ukraine currently has “a very low mobilization rate” and that on Russia’s side, “the statistics are doctored”.
The morale of the Ukrainians has certainly eroded, tired of this war. But on the ground, the soldiers’ speech does not change.
Although the war is very costly, “the Europeans will never let Ukraine fall because they are aware that if (Vladimir) Putin seizes Ukraine, it would be an extremely dangerous precedent” with risks for the Baltic countries and Poland, further estimates Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, expert at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
The French diplomatic source underlines in this regard that all the reasons which led to supporting Ukraine, from February 24, 2022, remain current.
“Supporting Ukraine is a security issue for Europe and for France,” this source declared to several journalists, adding that it was also necessary to “defy the idea that a crisis was chasing it away.” another”, in reference to Ukrainian fears that the war between Israel and Hamas would distract Europeans from the conflict in Ukraine.
“Risk period”
It is natural that there are questions almost two years after the start of this war, observes this diplomatic source. “Everyone understands that we are in a period of risk, but I do not see defeatism in Brussels or in NATO. »
For Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, there is nevertheless an urgent need for Europeans to silence dissonant voices such as those of Hungary at a time when “everything is working in favor of a status quo” on the military level, and this, probably until ‘in the US elections in November 2024.
A signal is all the more desirable since on the Ukrainian domestic level, “quarrels within the elites have appeared”, underlines the expert, with particular reference to the deterioration of relations between President Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the forces. armies Valery Zaluzhny.
“Is this the end of the sacred union behind Zelensky or is it just a parenthesis linked to the challenge on the front? », she asks.
In this context, French diplomats are striving to convince their European and Atlantic Alliance partners that it is also fundamental to continue support for Ukraine in order to send a signal to Vladimir Putin to “not count on exhaustion of support” in kyiv.
But to do this, Europeans must also accelerate the ramp-up of their defense industry and the interoperability of equipment.
Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO, Nataliia Galibarenko, recently deplored that the armed forces in Ukraine used more than 200 different weapons systems.