After 10 days of conflict, what outcome can we foresee for the war in Ukraine? The duty examines three possible scenarios in this growing crisis on Europe’s doorstep.
The bloodbath
Moscow was hoping for the rapid decapitation of Ukrainian power, but now a bloody war is confirmed a little more every day, bomb after bomb, death after death.
The shelling of cities is done without qualms with regard to the innocent people who live there. There is, in this rain of missiles falling on civilians, a strategy is taking shape, according to retired major and professor of Canadian military history at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Michael Boire.
“What we see is the establishment of logistics that will allow the intense bombardment of Ukrainian cities,” he analyzes. Once Kiev is besieged, the former soldier believes, Russian artillery will relentlessly pound the capital with the aim of isolating the Ukrainian president in a field of ruins.
” [Volodymyr] Zelensky will find himself under tremendous pressure. It’s all well and good to say and think that the Ukrainians will fight ad vitam aeternam : this is not true. When the city is surrounded, there will be no more access to supply the resistance from the outside. Then there will be a problem… and a lot of deaths,” predicts Michael Boire.
The Kremlin could thus force President Zelensky to choose between two evils: continue his heroic resistance and prolong the suffering of his people, or abdicate to save lives. The tactic is sinister: it worked, however, 22 years ago in Chechnya, when Vladimir Putin promised to “kill the terrorists in the toilet”.
Today, what concessions does the Kremlin intend to extract from Ukrainian power? “It’s extremely sad for Ukraine, but I think the partition of the country will be on the table,” said Ekaterina Piskunova, lecturer at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal (CERIUM). .
The republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, where a latent war has been fermenting since the capture of Crimea in 2014, would then pass into the bosom of Moscow, at the very least, would leave that of Kiev. Vladimir Putin would thus formalize the cutting of a protective corridor on its western border, starting from Crimea, in the south, and stretching to the north of Belarus, at the junction with Latvia.
In this scenario, the Kharkiv region, the second most populous city in Ukraine, turns out to be “strategically very important for Russia”, observes Mr.me Piskunova. “I also fear for his future in the country. »
occupation
After talking for 90 minutes on Thursday with his Russian counterpart, French President Emmanuel Macron was convinced: Vladimir Putin will not be satisfied with a piece of Ukraine. He wants to swallow it whole.
“We are talking about a maximalist war objective, which suggests that the current negotiations will not succeed,” assesses Yohann Michel, researcher-analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The bite, however, might prove too greedy even for the Russian giant. Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe, with a population of 40 million. To occupy it for a long time “makes no sense militarily”, slice Richard Giguère, retired brigadier-general, now expert in residence at the Graduate School of International Studies at Laval University.
“You know, hoping to capture a city of three million inhabitants like Kiev makes no sense, believes Mr. Giguère. And what is even less is to hope to hold it over time. The same goes for Kharkiv, which is a city of one and a half million people. »
“For the moment, Russia does not have enough troops to carry out this type of operation, unless it has recourse to particularly brutal methods, adds Yohann Michel. Methods which would recall, moreover, the way in which the Red Army had occupied Afghanistan and which also recalls the brutality deployed in Chechnya or, closer to us, in Syria. »
The Russian occupation of Ukraine seems chimerical in the long term, especially since the Ukrainian resistance is fierce and supported by a determined Western bloc.
The longer Russia prolongs its invasion, the more economic sanctions will weaken it. The conflict, particularly because of Western support for Ukraine, is likely to drag on, says Ekaterina Piskunova. “The more we equalize the capacities on the ground, the less a peaceful settlement is possible,” explains the CERIUM expert. Equity of capabilities normally pushes both sides to continue hostilities. »
As long as Volodymyr Zelensky lives, believes Richard Giguère, he will continue to “galvanize his people” and foment armed resistance. If the Kremlin dislodges him from power in favor of a puppet regime, an insurrection would undoubtedly challenge the legitimacy of the latter.
“It is clear in my mind that the Russian army cannot afford a long war,” said former Canadian Major Michael Boire. The Russian generals have understood the lessons given by the Taliban in Afghanistan: an occupation cannot work. A well-trained, well-commanded and well-supported guerrilla force by allies could create political problems for Mr. Putin. »
Reversal
The Kremlin is bludgeoning not only Ukrainian cities, but also Russians who voice their opposition to the war. Could this interior dissidence, harshly repressed until now, grow to the point of cracking the authority of the Kremlin?
“That war is Putin’s war. It’s not the Russians’ war,” believes Richard Giguère. Even if he hardly foresees the overthrow of the autocrat in the medium term, he specifies that a conflict which persists in spite of the opposition of his people ends up shaking any power.
“Three entities must be united to ensure military success,” explains the former brigadier-general. First is the government, then the army, and third, the people. As we speak, the Russian population, I’m not sure that it is well welded to this war. »
For the moment, at least, Vladimir Putin remains well seated on his throne, believes Ekaterina Piskunova. “Over the past 20 years, Vladimir Putin has built an institutional system of which he is the center, explains the specialist. Moreover, he also managed to greatly increase the standard of living in Russia. »
There remain the oligarchs, those extremely wealthy Russians whose business suffers from Western sanctions. Despite their considerable weight and their “monumental” losses, they will not shake the autocrat, believes Mme Piskunova.
“Upon taking over the presidency, Vladimir Putin brought the most reluctant oligarchs under his control. Those who have remained close to power, I call them the “tamed” oligarchs”, she illustrates.
However, Vladimir Putin may have opened a Pandora’s box by declaring war on Ukraine. His stature as a strong man, guarantor of a stability which the Russians sorely lacked after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is wavering.
“Putin is breaking this stability by waging war against Ukraine. In the medium and long term, this can have severe consequences for his power, analyzes Ekaterina Piskunova.
“He has the need to end the war as soon as possible and achieve victory. Otherwise, he will lose too much. »
In this volatile war, only one certainty emerges in the eyes of the four specialists consulted by The duty : the end of the clashes will be written with the blood of the innocent.
“It’s already a tragedy and there’s no way to change that. It’s a conflict, summarizes Yohann Michel, which we should all have done without. »