Many analogies and projections have been circulating since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the postures of several countries (Pakistan, Iran and China in the first place) fuel many speculations which are difficult to verify.
China’s diplomatic proximity to its Russian counterpart and the daily incursions of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwanese space have notably led several Western journalists to discuss the possible invasion of Taiwan. This thesis is also evoked in almost all the question periods following the university conferences organized around Ukrainian news.
It is true that Ukraine and Taiwan have several points in common: they are two territorial entities in the orbit of former empires. The latter are animated by feelings of revenge vis-à-vis the West and exploit recent history in this direction.
Ukraine and Taiwan also have territories claimed by these powers, always in the name of a revisited, simplified or falsified history: the Rus of Kiev remains, in the imagination of Russian power, the cradle of the nation then that Taiwan is defined as Chinese at all times while it was administered by Beijing only from the XVIIand century. Finally, in reaction to the multiple political and military interferences of their neighbour, the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese identify themselves more and more strongly as particular and independent nations.
Some disparities
However, these commonalities should not obscure the profound differences between the two. First, Taiwan is not, unlike Ukraine, a sovereign country recognized by the United Nations since resolution 2758 passed in 1971 by the General Assembly. Let us add that the countries which diplomatically recognize the island (and therefore ready to anger Beijing on this subject) are only fifteen. Under these conditions, UN General Assembly resolutions condemning a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan are unlikely.
Second, the Chinese army is not the Russian army. If its modernization and its capabilities are very real, its last deployment as part of an armed conflict dates back to 1979 and was lost against Vietnam, while the post-Soviet Russian army has been constantly deploying since 1994 (the first Chechen war).
To the ignorance of the real capabilities of the Chinese army in an active combat situation is added geography. Unlike Ukraine, the difficulty will not come from the melting snow and a possible sinking in the swamps, but from the challenge of a large-scale landing on enemy coasts, for which the armed forces have been preparing for years. to this eventuality.
Thirdly, while NATO refuses for the moment any direct involvement in Ukraine, the United States and several countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand), burned by the complete annexation of Hong Kong and Chinese diplomacy, have already announced that they would support Taiwan militarily in the event of an attack.
Finally, the political contexts of Russia and China are far from being similar. While Putin has been entrenched since 2000, Xi will seek re-election for a third term this fall. Aware of the damage caused by the treatment of minorities in the country and a strong diplomacy vis-à-vis the West, he counted until recently on the enhancement of his balance sheet: good management of the pandemic, effective revival of the economy in a context of sanctions and the smooth running of the Olympic Games.
On the international scene, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, who is currently reiterating the vigor of the Sino-Russian friendship, again assured in January that the establishment of a secure and stable world environment would be, at the approach of the XXand Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, a key axis of Chinese diplomacy for 2022.
If one can legitimately think that the massage of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border was a godsend for Beijing during the Olympic Games, the outbreak of the invasion at the end of the closing ceremony seems to weaken Xi’s position. Under these circumstances, it is rather unlikely that China will attack Taiwan’s territorial integrity. On the other hand, China is watching everyone’s reactions with the greatest interest in order to anticipate the consequences that such an act would cause, and nothing can be entirely ruled out in the near future.