Is Russia mounting manipulation operations on its border to be able to justify strikes on Ukraine, as suggested by the kyiv government?
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Thursday April 14, 2022, Moscow accused the Ukrainian army of having bombed several border villages on the Russian side. Immediate denial on the Ukrainian side, where it is claimed that it is the Russian secret services which are carrying out “terrorist attacks” in the border region, in particular in the village of Klimovo, to fuel “anti-Ukrainian hysteria”.
Problem: these military operations denounced by Moscow are in the “grey zone” of the border, areas prohibited to foreign journalists, where no independent source can therefore confirm whether what the Russian authorities claim is true. According to the PSB, the security services and a regional governor, kyiv would therefore have carried out three attacks on villages on the border, including one with two helicopters described as heavily armed. Moscow says there were injuries, but none were seen. The only evidence presented are a few images released by the official agency RIA Novosti where we see impacts in the wall of a house and a wooden hut.
Even before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow had already accused the Ukrainian army of bombing its territory, which kyiv has always denied. But these repeated accusations raise fears of a new escalation: today, Moscow seems to want to rely on these real or supposed incidents to threaten kyiv with bombardments on official buildings such as the army headquarters, which the Russians claim to have wanted to avoid so far.
These new threats also occur in a particular context for the Kremlin since the Moskva has sunk. This Russian flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, a 186-meter long missile cruiser, went to the bottom on Thursday April 14, 2022 during a towing operation.
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It was obviously too damaged to navigate in heavy seas. According to Moscow, it was a fire on board following the explosion of ammunition. According to kyiv, he was hit by two missile strikes. There can therefore be no reprisals, at least here again officially, for what is an accident.
However, the loss of the cruiser is heavy militarily and symbolically for Moscow, which has announced for several days that its efforts will now focus on the Donbass. It is possible that Vladimir Putin will launch a new major offensive in eastern Ukraine in order to consolidate and increase his territorial gains. A threat taken seriously by the CIA:and head of the American intelligence agency, Bill Burns, warns of the risk posed by these various military setbacks, which could incite the Kremlin to resort to a tactical or low-power nuclear weapon.