After five months of war in Eastern Europe, one thing is clear: the arms deliveries promised to Ukraine unfortunately seem to be cracking the hard-won political unity of liberal democracies. Not all states behave with the diligence and resolution expected in this sensitive area, contrary to what happened when the first economic sanctions were adopted against the state nomenklatura. poutinian. Will the Russo-Ukrainian war of attrition therefore ultimately get the better of the unity of the Euro-Atlantic community, thus allowing Russia to annex the territories conquered in Ukraine?
At the head of the pack are the United States, Canada and Great Britain (the contribution of these three States is exceptional), followed by the Baltic States and those of Central Europe. It should be noted here, however, that these modest-sized states cannot deliver the quantity of weapons necessary to really change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.
France and Germany are situated between these two groups of States which provide a very modest quantity of weapons compared to their available stock. How then to interpret the declaration of the French President, Emmanuel Macron: “We must not humiliate Russia”, by seeking a resolution to the conflict; it was very badly received in Ukraine and in Central and Eastern Europe.
Note that Hungary has refused to deliver arms to Ukraine despite the fact that the latter finds itself in the heart of a situation comparable to that of Hungary in 1956.
It is in this context that we must also understand the comments of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, which appeared in the pages of the Figaro of July 18; it is absolutely necessary that the Europeans hold on despite the soaring prices of energy and food: “This is a test of resistance for our societies”, he declared after a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels. ” I am sure that [le président russe Vladimir] Putin is counting on the fatigue of democracies. I’m sure he thinks democracies are weak. European societies cannot afford to be tired,” he said.
bogged down
Meanwhile, in Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War, calls by Russian nationalists and proponents of war rose to a crescendo on July 19 for President Putin to broaden the war aims of the Russia, fully mobilize the state for this purpose and abandon the rhetoric of the special military operation.
On the ground in Ukraine, according to the most recent reports, neither side, Russian or Ukrainian, made any significant territorial gains. Russia, however, intensified its attacks after a previous operational pause. At the same time, Russia also strengthened its defensive positions in the areas it occupies in southeastern Ukraine.
However, is it possible to argue, as does the head of British foreign military intelligence (MI6), Richard Moore, who spoke at the Aspen Security Forum during a rare public appearance reported by the BBC on July 21, that recent Russian gains were “tiny” and that Russia was “on the verge of running out of steam”? “Our assessment is that the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to find labor and materials over the next few weeks,” Moore said at the conference in Colorado. “They’ll have to take a break one way or another, and that will give the Ukrainians a chance to fight back. »
At present, this view is optimistic to say the least about Ukraine’s ability to counterattack; this will depend, to a large extent, on a larger supply of Western weaponry, which officials say has often been too slow to arrive.
However, he agrees with the point of view of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who held a meeting of the staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on the same day – this brings together the main officials of the defense and security sectors of Ukraine . According to the President’s report: “Participants at the General Staff meeting agreed that we have great potential for the advancement of our forces to the front and for inflicting further significant casualties on the occupiers. »
chinese falcon
Following the same logic, the head of MI6 said success on the battlefield would be an “important reminder to the rest of Europe that this campaign can be won”, particularly as a winter approaches. which is likely to be marked by pressure on gas supplies.
“We are entering a difficult period,” he said. An additional reason to maintain support to help the Ukrainians win, or “at least negotiate from a position of significant strength”, he said, is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is “watching as a falcon”.
In the meantime, according to The Moscow Timesthe Kremlin is seeking to hold referendums for captured Ukrainian territories to join Russia in September, Bloomberg reported Thursday, July 21, corroborating previous reports of unconfirmed takeover plans.
In the long term, Japan stressed, according to JapanTimesthe potentially lasting impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific region in its annual Defense White Paper released Friday, July 22, devoting an entirely new section to the conflict and its implications for Asia.
The focus on the conflict thousands of miles away comes at a time when Japan is eyeing China’s military might and its Taiwanese plans with caution, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida having repeatedly warned that “today’s Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow”.