(Washington) Homicides are down in a cross-section of U.S. cities, though the number remains higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, according to a new report analyzing data from 30 U.S. cities.
Homicides fell an average of 9.4% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, the nonpartisan Criminal Justice Council found in a report released this week.
The numbers remained about 24% higher than they were in 2019, and motor vehicle thefts rose sharply in the cities analyzed.
“We are seeing a continued decline in homicides, but most cities have not returned to pre-pandemic levels,” said Richard Rosenfeld, professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and co-author of the report.
This report is based on crime data posted online by police departments in 37 cities of varying sizes across the country. Several of the nation’s largest cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, are represented, but researchers did not have immediate access to data for others, such as Houston and San Diego. Of the cities that released online crime data, 30 included the number of homicides and 20 of those showed declines.
While the analysis doesn’t cover the entire country, it’s another piece of evidence that U.S. crime rates are trending down overall after a historic jump during the pandemic, said Jeff Asher, crime analyst and consultant at AH Datalytics, who was not involved in producing the report. He maintains a database of murder rates in about 100 cities and has made similar conclusions.
It’s a general decline. It’s not everywhere, but it’s widespread enough that it’s not just a coincidence.
Jeff Asher, crime analyst and consultant at AH Datalytics
The drop in homicides comes after a 29% increase in 2020, according to FBI data. It’s the biggest one-year jump since the agency began keeping records, though it’s still below all-time highs of the 1990s.
This increase came during the COVID-19 pandemic, which created huge social disruption and upended support systems. The rise in crime defies easy explanation, though experts have pointed to several possible factors, including the health crisis’ unprecedented strains on citizens and police, gun violence, social unrest after high-profile incidents of police brutality, and deep economic turmoil.
The FBI’s crime data, generally the most comprehensive in the nation, indicated that violent crime rates were beginning to level off in 2021, but the agency’s most recent data was incomplete. Nearly 40% of agencies, including major cities like New York, Los Angeles and Miami, did not submit their data for 2021 due to an overhaul of the FBI’s reporting system.