Two years of war in Ukraine seen from space

However, we must be careful when interpreting this data, adds Karolina Hird, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington. This institute, recognized as experts in armed conflicts, has been analyzing the war since February 2022. “Some people talk about an impasse, but that is far from being representative of what is happening on the land,” she explains to Duty.

Because in reality, territorial changes are constant. Although they do not constitute decisive achievements for either side, they are significant in the long term, especially when we take into account the political importance of these tactical operations as well as the their effects on the state of the troops.

Karolina Hird particularly points to last week’s capture of Avdiïvka, a small municipality on the outskirts of the city of Donetsk, in the east of the country, as a perfect example of the situation. “It’s a turning point for the Russian side,†she says.

Even if she does not anticipate additional Russian advances in the Donetsk oblast, the analyst emphasizes that this capture comes at a critical moment for Moscow. “With the arrival of the presidential elections in less than a month [Vladimir] Putin really needed such a victory for his campaign. We have seen it since this weekend; Putin and his Defense Minister [Sergueï Choïgou] present this capture as a major victory for Russian forces,” even if it is not a significant territorial gain, she emphasizes.

On the Ukrainian side, losing Avdiïvka is a hard blow to the morale of the troops, in a context where help from its Western allies is slow to appear. “Knowing that Ukraine is in dire need of ammunition, Russia is taking advantage of this niche,” argues M^me Hird.

Bakhmout, theater of urban war

For several months now, all of the fighting has been concentrated in rural areas or on large open areas, as demonstrated by ISW data. This is not trivial. “Russian forces have a lot of difficulty with combat in urban environments,” explains Karolina Hird. It took them a very long time to conquer Bakhmout, for example. HAS”

Today, after a battle that lasted nearly nine months, Bakhmout is only the ghost of what she was before. The majority of its infrastructure was destroyed by the war. Its population fled more than a year ago. What remains of the city is now under Russian occupation. Satellite images provided by the American company Planet Labs show the extent of the damage.

Above, the southern sector of the city is unrecognizable. The parks that were there are now nothing but earth and ashes. We can see, to the south, what remains of the Avanhard stadium (circled in the images), the scene of clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. A high school just north of the stadium is barely standing. The rest of the sector, composed mainly of small businesses and residences, is almost entirely destroyed.

In western Bakhmout, a residential area (circled in the images) was completely razed during the clashes. Nearby, just to the southeast, were a children’s hospital and a primary school. There is now almost nothing left of the hospital. The school, for its part, was severely destroyed. All around, houses and residential buildings are flattened to the ground. Some buildings are still standing, towards the south; these are the only structures that still cast a shadow against the sun.

Mariupol, “hero city” in the hands of the Russians

Further south, the city of Mariupol has been under Russian control since May 2022. Located on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov, it was besieged by Russia from the start of war, on February 24, 2022. This siege notably went around the world when Russian forces bombed the Mariupol maternity hospital in March two years ago.

The municipality is among the cities designated as a “hero city” by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky since the start of the war, and which have been at the heart of heart of the most intense fighting at the start of the Russian invasion. Satellite images show the changes that the urban landscape has undergone between October 2021 and June 2023.

The images opposite show the northeast sector of the city, largely residential. Since their conquest in 2022, Russian forces have undertaken to clean up the debris caused by the war, in particular accelerating the demolition of damaged buildings. These steps leave gaping holes on Ukrainian territory. Among the missing buildings, we note a neighborhood school (circled in the images). It leaves behind only the ghost of its walls.

In addition to the demolition of infrastructure, documents obtained by the ISW claim that Russian authorities are planning ethnic cleansing that will last at least a decade in Mariupol. The Kremlin hopes, among other things, to “depopulate the city of Ukrainians as an ethnic group” for the benefit of Russian citizens and to modify the toponymy of the places in order to make it Russian-speaking.

An uncertain future

Among the areas to watch over the coming months, Karolina Hird notes, among others, the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts, in the northeast. “Russia seems to have intensified its efforts to advance on this front, especially to reach Kupiansk and Lyman,” she explains, observing that Russian forces are getting used to it more and more. more numerous.

Kupiansk, in particular, is a city where many national roads converge. Such access to the road network would allow the Russian army to surround the Ukrainian forces located on this border. “But this is only possible if Russia takes advantage of this opportunity,” the expert adds.

The Zaporizhzhia oblast also risks being the target of attacks in the coming months, with Russia attempting to gain ground occupied by Ukrainian forces, which are becoming less numerous after s having been relocated as reinforcements to Avdiïvka in the last days.

“There is no risk of seeing Russian forces break through the front line and advance en masse towards Ukrainian territory,” notes Karolina Hird all the same. But such a number of pressure points on the front line will force Ukraine to remain in a constant defensive position, without being able to make significant gains on the territories occupied by Russia. “We risk seeing, over the coming months, several Russian offensives of this kind, very localized and small-scale,” concludes M.^me Hird.